#HandMalta  #BOMflop 

HOW MY KK WENT ALL KRAY KRAY...

The dealer reveals Q♠K♠7♠.

Villain bets 12,000.

The action is back on you. You now have a 118,500 stack.
Time to get a little serious... as things start to get heavy, i see the monotone flop drop...KQ7sss

Arrghhhhh not what i was looking for but still.....lets do this....

The guy flatted my 3bet pre and now donks into me for 12K,my instant reaction to the size of this almost pot sized bet is....

no no no no no......wtf.......didnt see that coming....

The EV of my perceived 3betting range here is massive, he must know this...right?

Compared to the amount of negative EV hands that are costing him a lot in the long run (hands in red are -EV), on average he loses 34,000 chips every time he donks out in this spot....

Thank you kind sir , the Ambasador is indeed spoiling us...

My initial plan to set up an SPR of about 5 is going smooth as butter...

ive landed an SPR of 4.6, by rights i can pretty much stick my chips in now against his range and i'm good 83.19% of the time.

Even though this guy is aggressive, he's not an idiot, he's going to open a laggy but solid range from middle position approx;

22+,A9s+,KJs+,QTs+,JTs,T9s,98s,87s,76s,65s,A9o+,KJo+,QJo
About 17%,

he could even open up all his Ax suited on top of this and the percentages still dont really change much.
If he's holding the Ace of spades particularly, he only ever hits this flop about 9.2% of the time and im still a huge favourite.
His donk bet absolutely stinks of AJ,AQ,AT,A9 with the ace of spades(perhaps), but i'll even allow him to have a set here some of the time. 
i dont see this line being taken with middle pair or top two on any day of the week, this may be the bubble but i'm not about to waste a decent opportunity here...he asks me if i have a spade in my hand....only one answer....
     If the guy has no spade in his hand and the turn shows a spade,  He still shows up with no flush and no draw between 53% and 60% of the time depending on what card peels. In fact he would show up with no draw and no made hand more than half the time here...

He has a weak pair in his hand about 35% of the time and will probably show up with Ace High about 25% of the time, 20% of the time he'll have a gutshot,

so from his betting

he looks like he's got one of these a majority of the time and he's about to commit anyway, so it's either a raise or a jam from me. 

Villains Stack-To-Pot ratio is now about 3.7, so he may well be setting himself up to get stacks in as i had plannned to anyway. Yay : )

I'm leaning more towards a raise about a third of the size of his stack, so it looks like i can still fold if he decides to come over the top, 2.7x the size of his bet seems nice here, not too much to
scare him off but just enough to allow him to hang himself if he wants to go broke with Top Pair/Two Pair or a Set.

I think 32,000 is a decent raise size here, he may even put me on the Ace of spades himself and conclude that i am the one holding a nutted draw...

either way...

he takes off his sunglasses...

looks at me and all he can see is....

And i smell his fear...