Imagine: You are close to the bubble in the Unibet Open Cannes. There are only 3 players to bust out before getting to the money!

2nd decision:

The blinds are 500/1000.

A player just sat at the table with a 43 BB stack. In middle position, he limps in.

Everyone else folds to you, in the cut-off.

You have 37 BB in front of you and A♣7♠ in your hands.

You raise 2.6BB.

Villain calls.

Flop:

J♦ K♥ J♠

You both check.

Turn:

A♥

Villain checks.

What do you do?

To reach the bubble with the most comfortable stack possible, then I would check.

However, give the circumstances, I would more than likely bet 3x.

This would be to test the waters to see what the villian has. I am trying to find out if he has a J or Q10. 

I am looking for him to fold. If he bets, then likely he has a hearts draw or a straight draw with a lone Q or 10. If he raises, then he might have the J or Q10. At that point, I fold and still have 30BBs.

No looking to do anything too silly but also not looking to be too passive considering I have two pair.

#UnibetBubble #decision2 @AndrewSpiers

Imagine: You are close to the bubble in the Unibet Open Cannes. There are only 3 players to bust out before getting to the money!

2nd decision:

The blinds are 500/1000.

A player just sat at the table with a 43 BB stack. In middle position, he limps in.

Everyone else folds to you, in the cut-off.

You have 37 BB in front of you and A♣7♠ in your hands.

You raise 2.6BB.

Villain calls.

Flop:

J♦ K♥ J♠

You both check.

Turn:

A♥

Villain checks.

What do you do?

I think due to villain checking twice we are going to be ahead a large majority of the time here and also he has not shown much interest in taking the pot. If he had slowplayed a monster such as Jx or Kx it is likely he would have come out betting on the turn. I choose to bet here and expect to get calls from weaker Ax + hands which I think are a huge part of a limpers range. We are also likely to get calls from a player who is on a draw with a Qx type hand or a hand with two hearts because "you know, it's suited!" We might even get a call from low-mid pocket pairs by a player who over values his hand because in his book he has two pair and doesn't believe you have the Ace. Either way, taking a stab at the pot on the turn when our opponent checks twice also gives us a very likely chance of winning the pot right there and adding a nice chunk to our stack approaching the bubble, where generally players will be more likely to fold and be less inclined to fight for pots without a really strong hand.

I bet 60% of the pot.

#UnibetBubble  #decision2

#UnibetBubble #decision2 @advoghado 

You have 37 BB in front of you and A♣7♠ in your hands.

You raise 2.6BB.

Villain calls.

Flop:

J♦ K♥ J♠

You both check.

 Turn:

A♥

Villain checks.

What do you do?

Simply: I check behind.

Lets see his expected range for limp-call and check both flop and turn. I dont expect any monsters, that would be limp-raised for sure.

Small pairs, like 44-TT. 

Suited connectors, 67s-KQs.

Boadway cards: like KJ, KQ maybe also QTs. Even that QTs is on the edge.

Ax cards, like A5-AQ.

We represent very wide range. Our preflop raise could have been a bluff, and we never called/raised after that.

So, should we raise?

We should always have a reason to raise. Bluff or value bet?

For bluff we want stronger hand to fold.

I dont see a single hand beating us in his range, which he would fold to reasonable raise. And for sure I dont want to bluff-shove and hope he has Ax (that he could fold). That is just small part of his range. And the pot size is just not worth it. And we are not getting extra values if he folds weaker hand.

For value bet we need weaker hands to call.

But at this situation, he will fold most of hands we are beating.

He will check/raise us with strong hands, and we dont want to call that, not even try some bluff catching now.

He will call with Ax probably, but its tie with most of those.

So its a check. Even we are giving him free card for straight/flush draws. 

Lets keep my thread extras in "Brad Pitt movie" aread. I think this one is appropriate now:

So, what would you put as seven deadly poker sins to die/bust at bubble?

#UnibetBubble #decision2 

Hi boys and girls ! hope youll have a nice sunday.

This is how i would play it 

I am an aggressive player and usually i bet here without giving it to many thoughts but this is a sensitive situation and i have to put things in balance-pros and cons -  for making a bet here.

If i bet here i would be called only by a hand  at least as good as mine or by hand with draws - a flush draw or why not a flush draw and gutshot straight draw if villain has a 10 or a Q of hearts. 

A bet would make my opponent fold smal pairs and any Q or 10 -  protect my hand -

Again , a bet here is like screaming that i have the Ace-i dont want that- + if he is a bold player he knows how easy is to make me fold my ace  at this stage with a decent raise.

Being first to act ,he might slow play a jack or Q10, thats another reason not to make this pot anny bigger.On the other way if he doesnt has anything and i check the turn he might see this as a sign of weakness and try a bluff on the river and it would be easier to call since the pot is pretty small

Again i am an aggressive player but although this might seem wrong or cowardly-chicken in this scenario i check,i dont want to complicate things 

@pin-vic  How woul you play here ?

#unibetbubble #decision2 #mathiaspetit  

2nd decision:

The blinds are 500/1000.

A player just sat at the table with a 43 BB stack. In middle position, he limps in.

Everyone else folds to you, in the cut-off.

You have 37 BB in front of you and A♣7♠ in your hands.

You raise 2.6BB.

Villain calls.

Flop:

J♦ K♥ J♠

You both check.

Turn:

A♥

Villain checks.

What do we do.?

First thing that we should do is try and assign a range of hands that he could have . We can pretty much rule out TT,JJ,QQ, KK and AK as he is likely to have raised them or could have limp reraised QQ+  preflop.With pocket pairs he is likely to have 22-99.Against these hands , any bet we make is likely to result in a snap fold with 3 overcards hitting our isolation raise range hard. so 8*6=48 combos that fold to a bet.

against his smaller suited connectors (45-9T=6*4 =24 combos) we have a similar situation with any bet we make getting a snap fold with a possible exception being the bigger heart SCs. he is unlikely to raise  any bet we make with SCs and villain could well be wary of bloating the pot with a pair of jacks on boardas drawing to a flush could be drawing dead vs made boats and boat draws.. At best he will call a small bet with 8 of 24 and fold the other 16 combos.

  He could also have Ax which he limped pre, again betting  against this part of his range is pointless as we tie against virtually all of this range and lose to AJ , and he is unlikely to have AK from his limp pre which will just bloat the pot against hands that beat us and gain nothing from the rest of this subset of his range.AT (AQ is likely to be raised pre) is an interesting subset of this part of his range as it has extra equity versus our hand due to the straight outs with a Q on the river..this gives us 10*4= 40 combos that we tie with and will call a bet .

  The rest of his limping  range pre is made up of his broadway cards .

TJ,QJ,KJ,AJ - have us beaten at the moment with  redraws to boats and straights. He has 28 combos (TJ - 8,QJ - 8, KJ -6 , AJ - 6) that he call or check raise us with and none will fold to a bet.

QT -4*4 =16 combos that have us beaten and will either call or raise.Since the board is paired he would likely just call us down in case we had AA, JJ, KK  and had checked the flop to let villain catch us.

KT,KQ =2*4*2=16 combos that we beat and  will likely call a bet and we have ~80% equity against them 

 summing up ,

betting

- folds out 48 small pairs combos+16 suited connector combos=64 combos

- gets called and ties with 40 Ax combos

- gets called/raised  and is behind 28+16=44 broadway combos

- gets called and is beating 16 broadway combos

If we bet we either fold out hands that we are beating , bloating the pot against hands that we tie against , or value own ourselves against 2.5 times as many broadway combos that have us beaten compared to the hands we are getting value from .

I'm going to check behind as we will keep the pot small limiting our losses if he raises/shoves over any turn bet we make   or bets big on the river,and gives  us a chance to catch up  with an A or J on the river aginst QT that has us beaten at the moment and alsogives villain a chance to bluff at the river with his 64 combos of small pocket pairs that we otherwise wouldn't get any value from. This gives the least risk to our stack vs hands that beat us whilst still  giving us a chance to  get extra value from hands that we are beating .

#UnibetBubble  #decision2 

Imagine: You are close to the bubble in the Unibet Open Cannes. There are only 3 players to bust out before getting to the money!

2nd decision:

The blinds are 500/1000.

A player just sat at the table with a 43 BB stack. In middle position, he limps in.

Everyone else folds to you, in the cut-off.

You have 37 BB in front of you and A♣7♠ in your hands.

You raise 2.6BB.

Villain calls.

Flop:

J♦ K♥ J♠

You both check.

Turn:

A♥

Villain checks.

What do you do?

I bet 7.8 BB

#UnibetBubble #decision2

2nd decision:

The blinds are 500/1000.

A player just sat at the table with a 43 BB stack. In middle position, he limps in.

Everyone else folds to ME in the cut-off.

I have 37 BB in front of you and A♣7♠ in your hands.

I raise 2.6BB.

Villain calls.

Flop:
J♦ K♥ J♠

You both check.

Turn:
A♥

Villain checks.

I bet 4.4BB 

If you like can you click like tnx! :)

2nd decision:

The blinds are 500/1000.

A player just sat at the table with a 43 BB stack. In middle position, he limps in.

Everyone else folds to you, in the cut-off.

You have 37 BB in front of you and A♣7♠ in your hands.

You raise 2.6BB.

Villain calls.

Flop:

J♦ K♥ J♠

You both check.

Turn:

A♥

Villain checks.

What do you do?

So I've raised this guy pre-flop and he's called, we made it 2.6k which was a great size against this limper to fold out those behind us, but also not bloat the pot too much as we were likely going to the flop with a good but not great hand.

Here's a reminder of what the pot was like pre-flop when we raised

We expected a call preflop as we thought he more than likely had a marginal hand that he wanted to see a cheapish flop with so far so good.

Then this flop comes

J♦ K♥ J♠

We have got an overcard to the flop which is nice, but when we think of the hands he's calling with preflop we either have them pretty much beat now (smaller sc's) as there's no flush draw here and the cards are high - and these hands are not going to call a bet. Or we are beat, by some weak kings in his range (KT, K9 maybe), very very rarely KJ... and weak pairs that he had preflop 22-66, which we are also fairing badly against now.

(even if we discount him having a pair of 7's meaning our 7 still has potential of improving us we are a 39% dog to 22-66!)

When we consider his potential hands versus this flop and that he only calls with hands that beat us on the flop there's no real value in betting here, so we check!

The turn

A♥

Is a good card for us obviously as we now have top pair. If he had a jack we would have expected a bet definately here on the turn, because we  checked the flop and he's going to want to get some value from a possible weak king that we decided to pot control with on the flop, and also protect his hand against draws but he checks. There are now more draws on the board as the turn has put three to a straight out there, and a flush draw, so we definately want to bet to get value from a weak king, a flush draw or a straight draw. So I decide to bet.

The pot is 6.7k, i've got 34.4k behind and he has 40.4k behind.

I make it 4.4k (2/3 pot) because we don't need to bet anything more to accomplish what we want to here. Get value from worse hands and protect our hand.

There's another great reason for betting here, if we check there are a number of river cards that damage our perceived holdings. He could be tempted to take a stab on the river, and if it's a large bet and the river is scary we will be faced with a tough decision.

This is something @Andrew Brokos speaks about quite well.

"Even in no-limit hold ‘em, there are situations where betting for protection is appropriate... The central consideration is whether the turn and river action is more likely to favor you or your opponent. If your hand is vulnerable, [and you bet] your opponents are unlikely to bluff... it is often worth betting simply to take down the pot and avoid giving a free card."

You can read the full article here if you're interested!

When I make my bet he winces and then looks like he's kinda mad

Well haha looks like our bet had the desired effect!

He's now in the can in Cannes :)

Now he's got a decision to make!

#unibetbubble #decision2

#UnibetBubble #decision2 

magine: You are close to the bubble in the Unibet Open Cannes. There are only 3 players to bust out before getting to the money!

2nd decision:

The blinds are 500/1000.

A player just sat at the table with a 43 BB stack. In middle position, he limps in.

Everyone else folds to you, in the cut-off.

You have 37 BB in front of you and A♣7♠ in your hands.

You raise 2.6BB.

Villain calls.

Flop:

J♦ K♥ J♠

You both check.

Turn:

A♥

Villain checks.

What do you do?

We see him limp and then call out 2,6 BB raise, he can have a wide rnage of hands here, we see him check on the flop, which is standard to do whetehr your strong or weak to let the Pre flop agressor bet. We check back on the flop assuming we have showdown value with our A high against his big range of hands. When there comes an A on the turn we are very comfident that we are ahead when he checks to us again, he could be checking here with complete air as well as a K, gut shot hand or a turned flushdraw, however he could possibly be trapping as well with a turned straight if he have QT or trapping with trip jacks that he want to check-raise with, however I don't think he will take that line very often, so on the turn I would like to make a small 1/3 pot bet, so he can make calls with worse hands like a single K, a gut shot or even a small pocket pair if he doesn't believe me. 

#UnibetBubble #decision2

As we know there are only 3 players to bust out before getting to the money. I have cca. 34 BB in my pocket. 

I'm afraid of his check-raising but I don't want to give him a free chance to see the river so in my opinion the best choice is bet (4 BB). This is not a big stake so if the guy raises a big I could fold my hand without heartbreak.I think he got a low pair (77, 88, 99 or TT) or a high card (A,K) with a good kicker  (suited or another high card). Let's show him I got a straight.