#unibetbubble #decision2 #mathiaspetit  

2nd decision:

The blinds are 500/1000.

A player just sat at the table with a 43 BB stack. In middle position, he limps in.

Everyone else folds to you, in the cut-off.

You have 37 BB in front of you and A♣7♠ in your hands.

You raise 2.6BB.

Villain calls.

Flop:

J♦ K♥ J♠

You both check.

Turn:

A♥

Villain checks.

What do we do.?

First thing that we should do is try and assign a range of hands that he could have . We can pretty much rule out TT,JJ,QQ, KK and AK as he is likely to have raised them or could have limp reraised QQ+  preflop.With pocket pairs he is likely to have 22-99.Against these hands , any bet we make is likely to result in a snap fold with 3 overcards hitting our isolation raise range hard. so 8*6=48 combos that fold to a bet.

against his smaller suited connectors (45-9T=6*4 =24 combos) we have a similar situation with any bet we make getting a snap fold with a possible exception being the bigger heart SCs. he is unlikely to raise  any bet we make with SCs and villain could well be wary of bloating the pot with a pair of jacks on boardas drawing to a flush could be drawing dead vs made boats and boat draws.. At best he will call a small bet with 8 of 24 and fold the other 16 combos.

  He could also have Ax which he limped pre, again betting  against this part of his range is pointless as we tie against virtually all of this range and lose to AJ , and he is unlikely to have AK from his limp pre which will just bloat the pot against hands that beat us and gain nothing from the rest of this subset of his range.AT (AQ is likely to be raised pre) is an interesting subset of this part of his range as it has extra equity versus our hand due to the straight outs with a Q on the river..this gives us 10*4= 40 combos that we tie with and will call a bet .

  The rest of his limping  range pre is made up of his broadway cards .

TJ,QJ,KJ,AJ - have us beaten at the moment with  redraws to boats and straights. He has 28 combos (TJ - 8,QJ - 8, KJ -6 , AJ - 6) that he call or check raise us with and none will fold to a bet.

QT -4*4 =16 combos that have us beaten and will either call or raise.Since the board is paired he would likely just call us down in case we had AA, JJ, KK  and had checked the flop to let villain catch us.

KT,KQ =2*4*2=16 combos that we beat and  will likely call a bet and we have ~80% equity against them 

 summing up ,

betting

- folds out 48 small pairs combos+16 suited connector combos=64 combos

- gets called and ties with 40 Ax combos

- gets called/raised  and is behind 28+16=44 broadway combos

- gets called and is beating 16 broadway combos

If we bet we either fold out hands that we are beating , bloating the pot against hands that we tie against , or value own ourselves against 2.5 times as many broadway combos that have us beaten compared to the hands we are getting value from .

I'm going to check behind as we will keep the pot small limiting our losses if he raises/shoves over any turn bet we make   or bets big on the river,and gives  us a chance to catch up  with an A or J on the river aginst QT that has us beaten at the moment and alsogives villain a chance to bluff at the river with his 64 combos of small pocket pairs that we otherwise wouldn't get any value from. This gives the least risk to our stack vs hands that beat us whilst still  giving us a chance to  get extra value from hands that we are beating .