#HandMalta #BOMriver

 Now here is where the great predicament arrives. A massive percentage of what we do at the poker tables is governed by our assumptions,
if our assumptions are wrong preflop about the image of our opponent, then every line we have taken was a mistake.
If the assumptions we made of the table dynamics are skewed in any way then we can easily misconstrue the current "tournament situation" we are in.
For example; do we know enough about this Swedish Pro to assume his starting range has now narrowed enough for us to nail down a few specific combinations of hands, especially considering
his turn "check" and how aggressive he has been?
Can i factor in the hand he played before this, where he spewed 20% of his stack and is now more than likely just making a play to re-coup some of the loss.
I myself do this often, straight after i lose a significant pot i am in the action very next hand trying build a pot with either an old fashioned "Stop-N-Go"
or perhaps the newly revised "Go-N-Go" or sometimes depending on number of opponents etc a variation of some other "play"...
As i have previously mentioned, i have indeed made this range quite narrow(but laggy) on the scale of things, ie; he could def be opening wider due to some of our "assumptions"
but i have indeed punched the numbers and when i put in a few more combos of Kx, Qx, Jx, all the suited Aces, the percentage changes are barely noticeable <>0.01 and 3.5%. (ish)
In fact maybe i should actually post one or two examples just to show you...

Heres what i've trimmed his range to.

and here's his range with a few more obvious cards thrown in.

You can see all other Ax combos added; suited(28) and unsuited(84), plus a further 60 more combos of Kx,Qx and Jx thrown in,
even on the turn as i have this set right now, the villain only has the Nut Flush 13.6% of the time and a Weak Flush 9.34% of the time
He shows up with Trips 2.71% of the time.

IE; The assumptions i made seem to bequite close and i'm happy to play on...

The all-in was inevitable, as from my earlier street planning, he certainly had enough rope to hang himself with and he has done a great job thus far.
If he indeed has a spade then GG, oh well, the dream is over, i'm going to go and cry into my dinner now...

For now i need to see how every possible spade would have affected the river and the percentage time he would of hit this as this was my worst case scenario
And as the river card is a inconsequential "brick" the 2♥ i can rule out anything worse happening to me based on the assumptions i made earlier and the assumptions i'll make if the spade had in fact dropped on the river....

Before the river came there was 9 possible cards,A♠, J♠, 10♠, 9♠, 8♠, 6♠, 5♠, 4♠, and the 2♠ that could have completed the flush, he was a 4-1 dog,

The pot 84,800 (42.4bbs) i have 90,500 stack (45.25bbs), theres is just a pot sized left for me, my SPR has landed crucially exact and correct. (1.6) to be precise...

So if the following cards came (in spades) this is how his chances of hitting the board would have changed;

Ace A♠=  He has No Made Hand about 75% of the time and the Nut Flush about 6.58% of the time and about the same for a Weak Flush.

Jack J♠ = He has No Made Hand about 71.7% of the time and the Nut Flush about 10.7% of the time. 6.29% he has a Weak Flush

Ten 10♠= He has No Made Hand about 70.4% of the time and the Nut Flush 10.5% of the time, Weak Flush 6.17%

Nine 9♠= He now has No Made Hand 70.4%, the Nut Flush 11.1% (highest so far) and the Weak Flush 6.17%

By the way it would have been a "Chop" 68.263% of the time, so thats wouldnt have been bad news either...

I don't think i need to continue with the other cards as they would hit his range even less than the cards i just went through.
All other cards are pretty meaningless too if i'm honest.

When the deuce hits the river, our guy here now has Middle Pair 12.5% of the time, a Weak Pair 16.1% of the time, Ace High about 16% also,
a Set about 6%, Top Pair 4% and and OverPair or Two Pair about 2% of the time

The equity share of the pot hasn't really changed much either, as per my rhyme, we're still sitting pretty at 65% to 35%

So it's a green light from me to get all the chippies in the middle....

I am about 0.5-1 favourite right now (64.88%) and the pot is offering near enough evens, so the maths still says the same thing (in a vacuum).
I am definately not in a vacuum right now and ICM should of played a huge part in my continuing, but i am almost certain i can put myself in a great chip lead if i take this pot down right now.
If i don't then... 

So to conclude my thorough investigation into this fantastic situation i find myself in, i am hypothetically fistpumping as he rams all his chips into the middle of the table. I snap call
Yes i could very well bust out here or perhaps wait another 221 hands to pick up another monster...
But....
i have a sign stuck down to my desk...it says "GO WITH YOUR GUT".And when you do these calculations all day, this stuff is what your gut is made of...

So i'm going with it...i might need a tissue ; )  It could go two ways right now.....this.......

or maybe just this....

or perhaps just this....

 GG NH WP SIR

So Long and Thanks for all "The Fish"

: D