#UnibetBubble  #Decision5 

Check our chances:

Not a bad situation. BUT...

I feel trap. Why? We should check his play:

1. Pre-flop: He has 30 BB and opens 2,2 BB from UTG+1

As we know he's a loose player and likes to see a lot of flops. But he started this round with a handsome bet from early position. He has to know there is chance for 2-bet, 3-bet or more 'cause he plays from early position. If two more players drop out he will be in the money. Risking 5% of his stack with nothing in the hand could be a very risky decision. But he hasn't got a monster hand as well.

2. Flop: 10♠3♦Q♦ Villain bets 5 BB

Only 3 players stayed in. He doubled up his opening bet (2,2 BB -> 5BB). Do You think he wants to steal the pot? I don't think so.

UTG+2 has a 90 BB stack, he can call (or raise) without doubt if he got a good hand.

UTG+1 is a loose player but not crazy. He has played couple of hours so this is not that moment when he will open with nothing against a large stack player. So in my opinion the flop is not too bad for him. In this case:

a., he has a flush draw with A♦ or K♦ in the hand (or both of them)

b., he has a high straight draw: AK, AJ or KJ

c., he has one pair with a high kicker (so getting a straight is not impossible): AQ, AT, KQ, KT, QJ or JT (?)

d., he has two pair (and waiting for full house or four of a kind): QT

e., he has three of a kind (and waiting for four of a kind or full house): 3, T or Q

3. Turn: 6♥ Villain checks

UTG+2 with the largest stack is out from this round and turn is a low card. This is the right time to steal the pot. But he slowes his play and checks. He's a not a crazy opponent and wants to finish in money I'm sure. So a., b., or c. option is the right one.

In this case I find myself in a very good position when river arrived (9♣). Option 'a' is out; option 'b' lost 2 chance out of 3; option 'c' is out.

But what can happen if I...

CHECK

in option 'a' (flush draw): he checks too. He checked on the turn so he doesn't want to waste his money. I win 17 BB.

in option 'b': with AK or AJ he checks too and I win 17 BB. BUT! With a KJ he bets (at least 5 BB and maybe I call. In this case after this round I find myself in a very bad situation because I'll have only approx. 22 BB) or goes all-in (I fold).

in option 'c': he checks or bets a small (3-4 BB, I call and win 23-25 BB).

BET (8 BB)

in option 'a': he folds. I win 17 BB. The same one as I check.

in option 'b': with AK or AJ he folds. I win 17 BB again. But with a KJ he goes all-in and I fold.

in option 'c': he calls (I win 33 BB) or folds (I win 17 BB)

ALL-IN

in option 'a': he folds. I win 17 BB.

in option 'b': He folds (AK or AJ) but with KJ he calls and I'm almost out of the tourney.

in option 'c': he folds. I win 17 BB.

So, in my opinion:

- all-in is forbidden

- bet is too risky, not worth it

- check is the right decision

My answer is CHECK. If he bets a small I call, and if he goes all-in I fold.