So the dealer has fanned a monotone board of all spades. The Swede has opened with a 12,000 chip bet into a pot of 28,800. He's stoic, and gives off no tells. But I already know a few things.
First of all, it's highly unlikely that he's hit a flush on the flop. If you play suited cards, you're only going to flop a flush about .84% of the time. And if you manage to flop a draw, you'll only get there about 6.5% of the time. So I'm fine with the spades because I know I can draw to the full house if he hits.
Secondly, if he has a draw, it's likely he will try betting to freeze me up here and see the turn for a cheap price that he sets himself. But I'm having none of that.
However, I still want maximum value here, and I want him to believe I don't like this board. If I flat him and he has no spade, I can kill my own action. So I need to raise here to deceive him and to add value to this pot. But how much?
I decide that if I double his raise, it will string him along. There's just way too much value to this pot to fold, and I'm counting on him being confident in his ability to outplay me for this pot. After a little bit of time thinking it over, I raise to 24,000 chips. It should serve as enough of a play to give him pause, and if he jams here, I'm willing to call because I believe I'm ahead and am willing to gamble for a chance to move up the leader board as we head into the money. I place my bet and assume a Helmuthian pose and wait for his response, which I anticipate to be a call.
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