ABC of Poker: Quick Odds with the Rule of 4 and 2

Poker, as we all know, is about making the right decisions. While psychology and intuition play a big role, the basic operations in the post-flop decision-making process are of a more objective nature and easier to grasp and practice:

1. counting your outs

2. estimating your chances of making a winning hand (drawing odds)

3. calculating the pot odds to decide if it's worth making a call

You already know all about outs and fortunately there is a simple way of working out the percentage chances of completing a winning hand. We owe it to the author of the Little Green Book and the Gordon Pair Principle, @Phil Gordon, and it's known as

The Rule of 4 and 2 

Source: http://www.philnolimits.com/uploads/8/1/8/9/8189328/nlh-tips.pdf

When you are on the flop, you should only multiply by 4 if your opponent is all in and you have to estimate your chances by the river.

Flush draw, opponent is all in on flop: 9 outs * 4 = 36%
Straight draw, opponent is all in on flop: 8 outs * 4 = 32%

Normally you multiply the number of outs by 2 on the flop when waiting for the turn; and again by 2 on the turn, waiting for the river.

Example:

You: K♦J♦

Flop: 7♦3♦Q♣

You have 9 outs - A♦Q♦10♦9♦8♦6♦5♦4♦2♦ to complete your flush draw, x 2 = 18% to make it on the turn.

Turn: 7♦3♦Q♣10♠

Now you also have an open-ended straight draw for which you need one of the following: A♥A♣A♠9♥9♣9♠, and this brings the number of outs to 15, or 30% probability of completing a winning hand on the river.

So what do you do with this percentage? You compare it to your pot odds and if the former are worse than the latter, you fold.  

As for pot odds and how to calculate - this will be the topic of another post in the #RKHabc series!

For homework ;)

How many outs for @Patrik Antonius in this hand?..What are his chances of completing a flush or a straight?