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Poker, as we all know, is about making the right decisions. While psychology and intuition play a big role, the basic operations in the post-flop decision-making process are of a more objective nature and easier to grasp and practice:
1. counting your outs
2. estimating your chances of making a winning hand (drawing odds)
3. calculating the pot odds to decide if it's worth making a call
You already know all about outs and fortunately there is a simple way of working out the percentage chances of completing a winning hand. We owe it to the author of the Little Green Book and the Gordon Pair Principle, @Phil Gordon, and it's known as
When you are on the flop, you should only multiply by 4 if your opponent is all in and you have to estimate your chances by the river.
Flush draw, opponent is all in on flop: 9 outs * 4 = 36%
Straight draw, opponent is all in on flop: 8 outs * 4 = 32%
Normally you multiply the number of outs by 2 on the flop when waiting for the turn; and again by 2 on the turn, waiting for the river.
Drawing Hand | Outs | On Flop OR Turn | Percentage Odds | By River | Percentage odds |
Flush draw | 9 | x 2 | 18% | x 4 | 36% |
Straight draw | 8 | x 2 | 16% | x 4 | 32% |
Flush AND straight draw | 15 | x 2 | 30% | x 4 | 60% |
Two overcards to pair | 6 | x 2 | 12% | x 4 | 24% |
Two pair to full house | 4 | x 2 | 8% | x 4 | 16% |
Example:
You: K♦J♦
Flop: 7♦3♦Q♣
You have 9 outs - A♦Q♦10♦9♦8♦6♦5♦4♦2♦ to complete your flush draw, x 2 = 18% to make it on the turn.
Turn: 7♦3♦Q♣10♠
Now you also have an open-ended straight draw for which you need one of the following: A♥A♣A♠9♥9♣9♠, and this brings the number of outs to 15, or 30% probability of completing a winning hand on the river.
So what do you do with this percentage? You compare it to your pot odds and if the former are worse than the latter, you fold.
As for pot odds and how to calculate - this will be the topic of another post in the #RKHabc series!
For homework ;)
How many outs for @Patrik Antonius in this hand?..What are his chances of completing a flush or a straight?
Elena RKH 13 May 2015
With 52 cards in the deck, 13 ranks and 4 suits, calculating probabilities in Texas Hold'em is unfortunately a little more complicated than the 50/50 chance of landing heads in a single coin flip :) What is more, even if you do get dealt a promising starting hand like a pocket pair, chances are someone at the table will be dealt a higher pair. So what are the odds of this happening?
To calculate the probability of being dealt a specific pair, AA for example, you multiply the probabiliies of getting each card: 4/52 x 3/51 = 12/2652 = 1/221 = 0.45%:
1st card: 4 Aces out of 52 cards in the deck, or 4/52 multiplied by
2nd card; 3 Aces out of 51 cards, 3/51
The probability of landing one of the top five pairs: AA, KK, QQ, JJ, TT is 5/221 = 2.26%
Respectively, the probability of getting dealt ANY pocket pair of the 13 possible ones is 13/221, or 5.9%.
Say you do hit those 5.9% and land a pocket pair. How likely is someone else at the table to hold a higher pair?
This simple equation was developed by poker pro, commentator and author @Phil Gordon:
C = (N x R) / 2
Where C = percent chance someone left to act has a bigger pocket pair
N = number of players left to act
R = number of higher ranks than your pocket pair
Example from the WSOP hand in the above photo where UTG raised with J♥J♣,
N=6 players left to act R=3 (there are three ranks higher than jacks) 6x3 / 2 = 9%
The formula was developed for situations when you are the first to act and results are not reliable if there have already been one or more raises by the time the action gets to you.
You will have noted the vulnerability of small pocket pairs, especially in full-ring games, so beware! Position is key and discipline even more so. If you pay to see the flop with a small pair, be prepared to fold unless you get that set! Queens and Jacks give you great odds pre-flop but should be played with caution thereafter (see overcard probability table below). As for the 'holy grail of poker' - KK and AA - these are the best pre-flop shove hands you can get and raise and re-raise is the way to go in any position!
Next on #RKHabc we will consider how to calculate drawing odds based on number of outs after the flop. Meanwhile, here is some information about what you can expect with a PP:
Every pocket pair's dream is to become a set and chances on the flop are approximately one out of 8 times.
Odds/probability of flopping a set or better | 8.5 to 1 (or 10.5% chance) |
Odds/probability of flopping a set | 7.5 to 1 (or 11.8% chance) |
Odds/probability of flopping a full house | 136 to 1 (or 0.73% chance) |
Odds/probability of flopping quads | 407 to 1 (or 0.25% chance) |
Odds/probability of making a set or better by the river | 4.2 to 1 (or 19.2% chance) |
Once in about 1,000 hands you might get into a 'set-over-set' situation, with two players starting with pocket pairs and completing three-of-a-kind on the flop or by the river as.in this hand from the RankingHero Last Longer in Unibet Open:
More on pocket pair odds:
In the event that nobody else was served a pocket pair, you will be concerned about the probablity of overcards coming up on the board and giving an opponent a better hand:
Coming up: Outs and Odds & the 'Rule of 4 and 2'
Annie RKH 8 May 2015
You will find a collection of odds and probablity tables on the website of RankingHero member @Nick Jivkov . Would be great to hear from Nick, as well as from @Greg Himmelbrand and @Miguel Alves De Abreu about their pocket pair strategy!..
I for one must confess a terrible weakness for TT... Do YOU have a special emotional attachment to a particular pocket paiir? A favorite video featuring PP you'd care to share?
And talking about @Unibet Open, perhaps @Ellie Biessek or Last Longer winner @Paulo Rodrigues have pocket-pair hand histories and/or tips to share with us?
The number of outs you have enters into your pot-odds calculation but even if you haven’t learned how to do it yet, you already know the essential: the more outs you have on the flop, the less reasons for you to fold and the more likely you are to complete a winning hand by the river.
While you need to be careful not to double-count certain outs (when the same card completes two different drawing hands), it is equally important to identify ‘tainted’ or ‘bad’ outs, which could make a better hand for your opponent. You are advised to count these as ‘half outs’, and in a more conservative mode of play, discount them altogether. (See Part I for a list of the most typical drawing hands and number of outs)
All too often, after the flop, you need two cards to make your straight or flush - these are the so-called ‘backdoor or runner-runner draws’. While there is some disagreement about their value, most pros recommend counting a backdoor straight or flush draw as one out.
Example:
You: Q♦J♦
Flop: J♣10♠7♦
Drawing hands and outs*:
second pair looking to improve to trips (with J♠J♦) or to two pair (Q♠Q♣Q♥ 10♦10♥10♣ 7♠7♣7♥)
open-ended backdoor straight draw: any king AND any A or 9; or any 9 AND 8 on turn and river;
backdoor flush draw: any TWO running diamonds out of 10 left;
Here's a four-way hand with a great flop to practice counting outs and identifying backdoor draws:
There is a made straight drawing to a straight flush; two backdoor flush draws; a full house draw; and a gutshot straight draw!
A hand is a one-outer when there's a single card left in the deck to complete a winning combination. In the example below, Ivey did not hit his one outer, the J♠, vs. Scotty Nguyen:
Here is @Mike Sowers in a WSOP hand when he actually rivered the only card in the deck that could save him :)
These are the outs that work for you NOT by directly improving your own hand, but by devaluing the hand of your opponent. Hidden outs typically come into play in situations with small pairs:
You: A♥Q♣
Opponent: 4♦4♣
Flop: 6♣6♠9♥
You are behind, with six obvious good outs:A♠A♣A♦Q♠Q♥Q♦
However, any 9 would deprive of value your opponent’s pocket 44s and you would end up with top kicker on a board of two pairs. On the upside, you have an additional three hidden outs; on the downside, these will only be useful when you have a good read of your opponent...
Imagine that Ivey is holding A♠4♦ and has flopped two pairs. At first glance, Tony G has only 3 direct outs - the three kings. But any 5 or queen would devalue the 44 to give Tony G two pair, top kicker. Should Ivey be holding 5♠4♦, Tony G has 5 direct outs (two aces, three kings) and three queens as 'hidden outs'. |
Sometimes you are left without outs and nothing to count as there are simply no cards in the deck able to improve your hand against that of your opponent's. This is when you're said to be 'drawing dead'. It's what happened in the above Monte Carlo Millions 2004 hand featuring @Antanas 'Tony G' Guoga and @Phil Ivey with a flopped set (three-of-a-kind made of a pocket pair and one community card):
Revise the basics with this article on counting outs from the #RKHabc series and with this @Phil Hellmuth tutorial:
Once comfortable with counting outs, any poker beginner should get a grasp of basic odds in poker and how to use the number of outs to estimate chances of hitting the desired drawing hand. Coming up soon on RankingHero!
Annie RKH 5 May 2015
Hey, thanks, I know we can always count on the @Ace-High Poker Group ;) But are these really one-outers, @William Calder?...
William Calder 5 May 2015
yes the queens that tom dwan are holding an the queen that comes out onn river is a one outer as the other queen was folded by another player .an the jacks by jungleman is a one outer as the other jack was folded by another player too so in both hand the case card is turned over to make a queens full for tom dwan an trip jacks for jungleman
Farcas Paul 5 Jun 2015
I remember that hu between Ivey and Nguyen , damn even Nguyen felt sorry for Ivey.
Contrary to the popular saying, in poker, you MUST count your chickens before they're hatched :) This will allow you to make informed decisions and help you put your money in the right pots! Outs are essential in calculating the probability of completing the winning hand.
Counting them is pretty straightforward - e.g. if you hold a pocket pair, A♦A♥ , there are two cards that can give you a set - A♠A♣, and with a flush draw, there are 9 more cards of the same suit, or 9 outs.
Here is a chart of the basic drawing hands and corresponding outs that you are advised to memorize so that you can move on to the next steps: calculating hand odds and most importantly, pot odds. Both will be covered in coming #RKHabc articles!
As shown in the last example above, you may also find yourself in a situation where two of your outs can complete either a straight or a flush. Be careful not to count those outs twice!
Note that the included charts concern a single card that can make your hand; unfortunately, all too often you need TWO cards - these situations are known as 'backdoor draws' or 'runner runner' and will be covered in future posts!
In the hand below, featuring @Arto Loikkanen and @Viktor "isildur1" Blom in an all-in during the Unibet Golden Cash Game, there is only one ace left to help Blom improve to a set.
Watch the hand in Golden Cash Game Superstar Viktor Blom Out with Bad Beat on First Night
The cards on the board are 'community cards' for use by all the players at the table, and sometimes an out that can improve your hand can also give an opponent a better one. These are therefore called 'half outs', 'tainted outs' or 'bad outs'. For instance, K♥ or K♣ in the above situation would improve Viktor's hand from one to two pair, but would complete trips for Arto.
When you hold A♠K♦ on a 10♠3♠K♠ flop, there are nine spades that can complete your flush to give you an unbeatable hand on an unpaired board. (With a pair or three of a kind among the community cards, you need to take into account the possibility of a full house for your opponent.)
In the hand below from the same event, Blom made his flush on the turn and @Mikael Norinder had 4 outs K♣K♥A♣A♥ to outdraw him and complete a full house:
Watch the hand on RKH in Clash of the Vikings in Golden Cash Game and UNhappy Ending for Viktor Blom
Not all outs are of equal value. Some will just improve your hand without guaranteeing the win and others will actually give your opponent the best hand.
Always remember to check for straight/flush/full house draw possibilities on the board and discount or reduce by half the value of 'tainted' outs that may benefit your opponent.
There's a lot of praying to the poker gods at the poker tables so at least make sure you know what to pray for!.. As in most things, practice makes perfect and you will soon be counting outs 'on auto mode'. Here's a great site to practice: http://howmanyouts.com
For homework :)
How many outs for @Connor Drinan in this famous hand?
Coming up soon: Hidden Outs, Hand Odds, Pot Odds
As most beginner guides, the #RKHabc series is based on ABC poker theory and its fundamental postulate: you play only solid hands, betting and raising when you're strong and folding when you're weak. Sounds obvious and self-explanatory, as long as you know your poker hand rankings, so where's the catch?
As you must already know if you're reading this article at all, 'strength' in poker is not at all about the ranking order of poker hands. What is equally - if not more - important is your position at the table relative to the Button (the last player to act post-flop).
You may find slight differences among poker writers as to the 'allowed' starting hands in early position. Some may, for example, include pocket TTs in open-raise charts for UTG while others will recommend QQ+ only. But one thing they all agree on is that players in early position must be much more selective and should only play a tiny fraction of their starting hands. This, you will find, often requires total mobilization of your willpower and discipline :)
In early position - UTG, UTG+1 - in a full-ring game, you will be folding more than 95% of the time pre-flop! Play tight and open raise with premium hands only (high pairs AA, KK, QQ and AKs/AKo). Do not open limp!
Some poker writers loosen up the starting hand range to include JJ and TT, as well as high suited AQ, AJ, KQ, KJ and high unsuited AQ, AJ. Naturally, it all depends very much on stack sizes and on what you know about your opponents at the table.
Remember that with fewer than 9 occupied seats you are moving closer to the button and the early positions drop out. In a 6-max, the first to act pre-flop has a wider recommended starting hand range including, for example, pocket pairs down to 55s.
Related articles on #RKHabc:
Do you have a favorite video tutorial or article on starting hands? What would your own personalized chart of UTG starting hands look like?
Annie RKH 22 Apr 2015
It would be great to hear from the leaderboard heroes in our many freeroll competitions - perhaps @Jackofclubbs @Tedy Mihai @John Thomson @Chetakatatak @Andrew Brisland or the other high-ranking players would care to share their own strategy and tips about starting hands?
And here's a question for all of you and for our in-house pro experts @Pedro Canali and @Nicolas Levi:
The recommendations in the article concern open raises in UTG and UTG+1. How much should we extend the starting hand range for CALLS by UTG+1 in the same tight-playing ABC poker context?
Andrew Brisland 22 Apr 2015
I am not sure that calling in utg+1 is a very good idea , probably best to either raise your really strong hands to get Headsup in position, or fold your medium hands, calling just opens the door for more and more players to call getting "pot odds" then you are stuck in the middle
Annie RKH 22 Apr 2015
Yes, @Andrew Brisland, you're quite right of course; what I was really wondering was what kind of starting hands UTG+1 would need in order to act after an open raise by UTG and still be playing straightforward ABC poker?
As the popular fun fact goes, there are more ways to arrange a deck of cards than there are atoms on Earth! How fortunate we are then that with 52 cards and 4 suits, there are only ;) 1326 possible combinations of starting hands in poker! And to make things even easier for beginners, these fall into five basic types (pairs, suited or unsuited, connected or gapped) and three broader categories in terms of post-flop potential (premium, solid, speculative).
While the chance of being dealt any pocket pair is 5.9%, how likely are you to get dealt a specific pair? There are 13 possible pairs, each with 6 combinations. Knowing this, you can calculate the probability as 6/1326=0.0045 or 0.45% probability and odds of 220:1. Related terms: pocket pair, top pair, over pair A♥A♠, 2♣2♦
As the name suggests, these are two consecutive (connecting) cards of the same suit which can combine with the community cards to form a straight: J♥10♥; 8♠9♠; 5♦6♦
Two cards of the same suit but with a gap between them - the smaller the gap, the greater their speculative value K♠J♠, 9♦6♦, J♥7♥
Q♠J♦, 8♣9♥, 4♣5♥
K♣9♥, J♠4♦, 10♦8♠
These are the very best hands in poker and the ones you can play in any position: AA, KK, QQ, and AKs
These include pocket pairs of 88 and better (88+); high suited cards AKs, AQs, AJs, high unsuited cards AKo
May be further differentiated into 'quality' and 'weak' speculative hands and include small pairs, suited connectors, and suited aces. Especially valuable in early tournament stages when the blinds are small compared to the stacks (see Brush Up on Your Deepstack Strategy in Time for the MPS Malta!)
Hole cards - the cards dealt face down to the players; in Texas Hold'em, the two cards that make up your 'starting hand'; sometimes 'pocket cards' as in 'pocket pair' (when you are dealt two cards of the same value)
Community cards - the cards dealt face up on the table, forming the board, for use by all the players active in the hand
Board - the community cards dealt face up on the table
(s) - suited as in AKs, A♥K♥
(o) - offsuit, as in AKo, A♣K♦
(x) - any card 9 and lower, as in Ax A♦5♣ or Axs A♠5♠
OP - 'overpair', a pocket pair which is higher in value than any of the community cards on the board and would thus beat the 'top pair' as on the 5♥7♣J♣ flop when you hold Q♥Q♠
TP - ‘top pair', when you pair one of your hole cards with the highest community card, as on a 5♥7♣J♣ flop when you hold J♦10♠
TP and OP are terms relative to the specific board unlike the generic term 'high pair'.
Watch @Annie Duke in this starting-hand tutorial:
Continued in: ABC of Poker: Starting Hands in Early Position
Related #RKHabc article:
Slowrolling - to be distinguished from slowplaying - means to maliciously delay calling a bet or turning over one's cards at showdown when holding the best hand, leading the opponent to think they are winning the pot. This is an unforgivable breach of poker etiquette and a sure way of antagonizing the entire table.
Coming from the explosive @Mike Matusow, known as The Mouth for his trash-talking, this is a good indication just how deadly a sin slowrolling is in the world of poker.
And not only players get enraged by slowrolls - all too often they seem to be as offensive to the poker gods and will get punished by the river, as shown in the videos below, including the most-talked about hand in poker in the past month, from the 2015 Paddy Power Irish Poker Open:
Because it can be a matter of subjective perception, live poker beginners and even pros may find themselves unjustly accused and there are many videos of alleged slowrolls on youtube where in fact the guilty player had legitimate reasons to pause and think or was genuinely unaware of the strength of their hand, with no malice involved.
So next time you see a video labeled 'the worst slowroll in history', ask yourself: was it deliberately intended, was it meant to make the opponent feel bad?
And respectively, next time you find yourself with the nuts in an all-in, make the call and show your cards without delaying. As one poker writer aptly put it, "You know you’re going to hurt your opponent, so rip the band-aid off quickly" (http://gamboool.com/definition-of-a-slow-roll-and-why-its-a-big-breach-of-poker-etiquette).
Even if unsure whether you've won, and especially when you are the bettor, reveal your cards without delaying and let the dealer sort it out. All-ins and showdows are nerve-racking enough and poker players can be very quick-tempered and vindictive. You don't want the whole table turning against you!
When holding the nuts at showdown or in an all-in, turn over your cards as quickly as possible.
It is never 'ok' to slowroll; stick to sportsmanship even against the most obnoxious opponents and let the poker gods do the punishing.
Help us grow the RKH poker resource collection and share relevant videos and articles! Best of all, share your personal experience - have YOU ever slow-rolled anyone (intentionally or inadvertently)? Have you ever been unjustly accused of slowrolling?
Slowplay is often defined as the opposite of bluffing (though both are about deception at the poker tables). It means you are holding a very strong hand but under-representing and playing it passively - checking and calling rather than betting and raising. Beginners seem more inclined to slowplay monsters but will often fall into the trap they think they are setting for their opponents. In the hands of the best card readers, slowplay can be a powerful - if still double-edged - weapon.
Most basic poker tutorials will caution you against slowplaying for the simple reason that you are likely to stray from what should be your main goal in poker: to win the most money possible. Strong hands are rare enough and you must therefore make the most of them to build the pot.
On the other hand, slowplay, or sandbagging as it is also called, can be a great trapping tool and is part of the 'arsenal' of all experienced players.
As @Phil Hellmuth explains in the video below, because it is very difficult to find the fine balance between 'giving rope and giving too much rope', he relies on his reading of people when he starts slowplaying hands, always ready to fold if he feels he's outdrawn.
Essentially, you should resort to slowplay in order to mix up your game and 'change gears' from time to time, especially when you have already established an image for yourself as an aggressive player.
You check-call with your monster hand against an aggressive bluffer or an opponent with second-best hand; the pot builds up and your opponents get so far committed, they cannot fold when you finally make your move and raise them all-in.
You don't bet and with checks all round, no additional money is put into the pot.
Don't slowplay against multiple opponents on a wet board or be prepared to fold if you do.
Slowplay only when you are confident in your read of your opponents. Either when you feel they have some catching up to do or when you believe they will try to bluff you.
Here are the five 'requirements for slowplaying' as postulated by the guru of poker theory, @David Sklansky:
And before you head off to your favorite poker room to put it all to the test, check out what @Daniel Negreanu and @Phil Hellmuth have to say about slowplaying:
Finally, slowplay should not be confused with slowroll, which will be the topic of another post on rankinghero.com :)
Poker is a game of incomplete information and that is why you need to watch out for anything that can help you fill in some of the gaps. In terms of information, the first of your assets and vulnerabilities is your position at the table. Essentially, the later you are to act, the more information you will have gained about your opponents.
Position is a strength and a weakness that cannot be disguised with hoodies, scarves and sunglasses. It is possibly the advantage pros value the most and the key factor that beginners tend to underestimate or completely ignore.
But first things first:
In the first betting round, before the three community hands are dealt, the betting will always start with the player immediately to the left of the Big Blind and proceed clockwise: UTG, UTG+1, MP1, MP2, HJ, CO, BTN, SB, BB.
The dealer button is then passed along to the left in the next hand (even when you have someone physically dealing the cards every time :); the first card is always dealt to the Small Blind.
The Dealer Button posts the small blind and is dealt the first card. The Button is the first to act pre-flop. In the next three betting rounds - flop, turn, and river - the player on the button regains his advantage and acts last.
A nine-handed table has 'early position' (the blinds and UTG), 'middle position' (seats 4,5, and 6), and 'late position' (Hijack, Cut-off and Button) seats.
This division refers to the acting order after the flop: SB, BB, UTG, UTG+1, MP1, MP2, HJ, CO, BTN.
The later your position, the more you know about your opponents.
The fewer players are left to act after you, the better your chances of controlling the pot and the action.
Playing 'in position' means you are acting after your opponents on the flop, turn, and river, and you have an information edge.
Being 'out of position' means you have to act before your opponents on the flop, turn, and river, and puts you at a disadvantage since you don't have pot control and you are the one giving away information. In other words, 'being out of position' most of the time means you shouldn't be playing :)
Play tighter (with premium or 'monster' hands) in early position and widen your range (play more starting hands) in late position. When out of position, you will usually be right to fold if someone in position raises.
vatopkr 25 Mar 2015
Nice post!
Annie RKH 25 Mar 2015
@vatopkr should know - here's a hand in which he put his BTN position to good use:)
Adrien Bacchi 13 Apr 2015
Nice post !
#HandReplayerI was so scared a lot of callers
Adrien Bacchi 25 Mar 2015
Interesting !
Indeed, a lot of callers.