#UnibetBubble #decision3 #ajax

Imagine: You are close to the bubble in the Unibet Open Cannes. There are only 3 players to bust out before getting to 

the money!

3rd decision:

The blinds are 500/1000.

A player just sat at the table with a 43 BB stack. In middle position, he limps in.

Everyone else folds to you, in the cut-off.

You have 37 BB in front of you and A♣7♠ in your hands.

You raise 2.6BB.

Villain calls.

Flop:
J♦ K♥ J♠

You both check.

Turn:
A♥

Villain checks.

When you put 3,000 chips in the middle, villain instantly calls.

River:
9♦

And again, villain checks.

What do you do?

Well we can still put him on pretty much the same range as we did on the turn , 22-88 probably folded to our bet , 99 may
have hung around. lets say he folded his 99 half the time,so that at most he has 2 combos of 99 left on the river which
have improved to have us beaten.
With his small suited connectors we assumed he may call with 8 of those combos on the turn , the river didn't really help
this part of his range and against 3 streets of aggrssion he is likely to just fold these 8 combos to a bet so no value to be
got from these by betting.
With his Ax hands he has 6 combos of AJ that beat us and 9 combos of AK that beat us . AK is unlikely because of the
action pre so we can probably discount that down to 2 combos of AK.So we can say 8 combos of Ax that call and beat us,
and 40 that call/shove and tie.
16 combos of QT have us beaten and probably shove over any bet.
of his broadways TJ,QJ,KJ still have us beaten are arent folding, so 22 combos that beat us

KT,KQ are 16 combos that probably now fold to a bet so no value to be gained.

By betting there is no part of his range that we can get value from , and open ourselves up to being shoved on and putting
us in a really tricky spot as he could do it as a bluff with his KQ, KT and as a value shove with his Ax hands knowing that
we can't put our stack on the line in the hope that we a chopping the pot against his Ax hands.

We have a lot of showown value , but villain has plenty of hands that beat us , or that he can represent by shoving the hands that we tie with . As a result this looks like a straightforward check behind as it also gives us information on his limping range pre , and his play style post flop which we can exploit in following hands.