#UnibetRoyalFlush

So, on the bubble, blinds at 4000/8000/1000

Hero (BTN): 25bbs i'm holding K♥Q♥

Villain(SB): 20bbs

With a starting pot of of 21,000,  i open about half my normal opening range here about 22%, i bet 20,000 giving the dude 2-1, the pot offers him roughly 2.5-1 so he makes a fairly easy call...  

The flop comes A♥J♥10♥

Then i  "do a little dance, share a little love...get down tonight"

Before i run around the casino naked with my tongue hanging out slapping the massage girls with it as i fly past...i stop to have a little think......hmmmmmmm

First i gotta think about this dudes cold calling range from the SB;

Assuming villain is going to 3bet me a lot of the time with his value hands, i can remove most of these from his range and put him on a de-polarised(condensed) range of about 6.11%

For simplicitys sake i've given him 66-99, T9s-QJs, QTs, KTs, K9s, A8s, A9s.  about 92 combinations. (there are def a few hands either side of this that could be shoo-ed in but i've stuck with these few hands just for this question).

From villains perspective, my perceived range is roughly 22% including 22+,A4s+,K9s+,Q9s+,J9s+,T9s,98s,A9o+,KTo+,QTo+,JTo  thats 294 combos. Yay me.... : )

Most of this villains range consists of weak pairs and gutshots and some weak flushdraws...

His weak pairs hit this flop about 68.2% of the time- KTs,QTs, T9s, KTo, QTo, 66-99. (45 combos)

His middle pairs hit about 13.6% of the time, QJs, QJo. (9 combos).

His top pair hands hit 9.09% of the time A9s, A8s,(6 combos)

His two pair hands like JTs hit the flop 4.55% (3 combos)

Villains Gutshots hit the flop about 45.5% of the time, KTs,K9s,QJs,QTs,KTo,QJo,QTo (30 combos)

He has weak FD's 13.6% of the time with his 66-88 (9 combos)

he also has 3rd nut flushdraw with his 99 (3 combos)

and 4.5% of the time he has no made hand with his K9s (3 combos)

I'm looking at the hand totally from a "Range vs Range" aspect and not " hand vs range" angle, this will help me see the game from villains perspective a lot more imho...

If you cant see the figures, it's 60% vs 40% in favour of my range on this flop...

Now considering how little villain hits this flop his equity is pretty good, his gutshots and pair hands have given him a fighting chance versus my range NOT my hand....

here's a little equity distribution heat map : )

Now looking at my next action, if i bet the size of the pot, villain has to be ahead about 33% of the time for his call to breakeven.

Now in my own tiny mind, in this spot, i dont want him to be breaking even....i want the guy to be winning and making a plus EV call vs my range. I need him to make a mistake (in the here and now vs my actual cards) ; )

His check on the flop was already -EV, if i check back my EV will be 0....if i check again on the turn my EV will again be 0.

If i bet half pot (as a bluff) my bet only needs to work a third of the time for it to be breakeven.

If i instead look at my bet from villains point of view, villain only needs to be ahead 17% of the time if the hero bets about 1/4 pot here...

17%= 4.8-1   therefore 4.8 times villain loses a total of 68,000 in chips 

but the one time he wins he scoops a pot of 114,000

114,000- 68,000=46,000= 5.7bbs(chipEV)

Now i may be a bit of a Maths donk, but i'm thinking if this guy can make a profitable call against me on the flop i could be onto a winner if i make the right choice....

for the villain a few turn cards could theoretically help him out....any Ace, King, Queen, Jack, Ten, 9, 8,7 or 6.......

And as he is a thinking player, if i check back this flop he may assume i am out of line by not cbetting and that i maybe already have him crushed.

If i bet too much i negate a lot of his equity in the pot, so i am thinking after my little exploration that a nice bet of 14,250 could quite easily be called here, as he could view my bet as an attempt to take the pot down relatively cheaply.

Also villain should be expecting a cbet a majority of the time on most A or K high boards...the monotone flop as scarey as it is

only really hits my range a tiny percentage more...

Weak Pairs 33.3%

Gutshots 38.7%

Top Pair 22.7%

Two Pair 12%

Set 4%

Straights 6.67%

Flush 0.89%

The fact is though, there are only a handful of hands that truly have any +EV to them if he calls 66-99, A8s and A9s.....

Soooooo, to cut my long arse story short lol......i'm gonna bet 25% of the pot 14,250 or thereabouts as a continuation bet simply to allow him to make a profitable call versus my range....

If he folds, he folds....whatever, it just means i was getting no more action anyway and i have still won the maximum from him possible, i know he made a mathematical error if he doesnt call....therefore a quarter of a pot bet just PWNED his backside on a monotone flop and i'm a happy bunny either way....

FWIW i dont care about showing off my RoyalFlush, i just muck my cards quietly and move on to the next hand 

But if the guy calls me down to the river......

Partytime