ABC of Poker: More About the Good, the Bad, and the Hidden Outs

The number of outs you have enters into your pot-odds calculation but even if you haven’t learned how to do it yet, you already know the essential: the more outs you have on the flop, the less reasons for you to fold and the more likely you are to complete a winning hand by the river.

With 8-9 outs on the flop, you have a solid drawing hand. With 12 and more outs, chances of improving by the river increase to 45% and up.

While you need to be careful not to double-count certain outs (when the same card completes two different drawing hands), it is equally important to identify ‘tainted’ or ‘bad’ outs, which could make a better hand for your opponent. You are advised to count these as ‘half outs’, and in a more conservative mode of play, discount them altogether. (See Part I for a list of the most typical drawing hands and number of outs)

Watch the amazing hand in which Busquet hit a backdoor full house draw with running aces!

Backdoor Draws

All too often, after the flop, you need two cards to make your straight or flush - these are the so-called ‘backdoor or runner-runner draws’. While there is some disagreement about their value, most pros recommend counting a backdoor straight or flush draw as one out.  

Example:

You: Q♦J♦

Flop: J♣10♠7♦

Drawing hands and outs*:

second pair looking to improve to trips (with J♠J♦) or to two pair (Q♠Q♣Q♥ 10♦10♥10♣ 7♠7♣7♥)

open-ended backdoor straight draw: any king AND any A or 9; or any 9 AND 8 on turn and river; 

backdoor flush draw: any TWO running diamonds out of 10 left; 

* not taking into account the theoretically possible full house and quads 

Here's a four-way hand with a great flop to practice counting outs and identifying backdoor draws:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ctiw1MjWvGQ

There is a made straight drawing to a straight flush; two backdoor flush draws; a full house draw; and a gutshot straight draw! 

One-outers

A hand is a one-outer when there's a single card left in the deck to complete a winning combination. In the example below, Ivey did not hit his one outer, the J♠, vs. Scotty Nguyen:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gqAmobtYKhQ

Here is @Mike Sowers in a WSOP hand when he actually rivered the only card in the deck that could save him :)

Hidden Outs

These are the outs that work for you NOT by directly improving your own hand, but by devaluing the hand of your opponent. Hidden outs typically come into play in situations with small pairs:

You: A♥Q♣

Opponent: 4♦4♣

Flop: 6♣6♠9♥

You are behind, with six obvious good outs:A♠A♣A♦Q♠Q♥Q♦

However, any 9 would deprive of value your opponent’s pocket 44s and you would end up with top kicker on a board of two pairs. On the upside, you have an additional three hidden outs; on the downside, these will only be useful when you have a good read of your opponent...

Imagine that Ivey is holding A♠4♦ and has flopped two pairs. At first glance, Tony G has only 3 direct outs - the  three kings. But any 5 or queen would devalue the 44 to give Tony G two pair, top kicker. Should Ivey be holding 5♠4♦, Tony G has 5 direct outs (two aces, three kings) and three queens as 'hidden outs'.

'Drawing Dead'

Sometimes you are left without outs  and nothing to count as there are simply no cards in the deck able to improve your hand against that of your opponent's. This is when you're said to be 'drawing dead'. It's what happened in the above Monte Carlo Millions 2004 hand featuring @Antanas 'Tony G' Guoga and @Phil Ivey with a flopped set (three-of-a-kind made of a pocket pair and one community card):

Revise the basics with this article on counting outs from the #RKHabc series and with this @Phil Hellmuth tutorial:

Once comfortable with counting outs, any poker beginner should get a grasp of basic odds in poker and how to use the number of outs to estimate chances of hitting the desired drawing hand. Coming up soon on RankingHero!