Imagine: You are close to the bubble in the Unibet Open Cannes. There are only 3 players to bust out before getting to the money!

2nd decision:

The blinds are 500/1000.

A player just sat at the table with a 43 BB stack. In middle position, he limps in.

Everyone else folds to you, in the cut-off.

You have 37 BB in front of you and A♣7♠ in your hands.

You raise 2.6BB.

Villain calls.

Flop:

J♦ K♥ J♠

You both check.

Turn:

A♥

Villain checks.

What do you do?

I think due to villain checking twice we are going to be ahead a large majority of the time here and also he has not shown much interest in taking the pot. If he had slowplayed a monster such as Jx or Kx it is likely he would have come out betting on the turn. I choose to bet here and expect to get calls from weaker Ax + hands which I think are a huge part of a limpers range. We are also likely to get calls from a player who is on a draw with a Qx type hand or a hand with two hearts because "you know, it's suited!" We might even get a call from low-mid pocket pairs by a player who over values his hand because in his book he has two pair and doesn't believe you have the Ace. Either way, taking a stab at the pot on the turn when our opponent checks twice also gives us a very likely chance of winning the pot right there and adding a nice chunk to our stack approaching the bubble, where generally players will be more likely to fold and be less inclined to fight for pots without a really strong hand.

I bet 60% of the pot.

#UnibetBubble  #decision2