Mystery Hand : Round 3

we found a lucky 2way straight draw that give us some outs to close a decent point in dat spot , c-bet 11,500 and hope in a lucky river to push him out...maybe he is in flush draw with ace or king high ,maybe k10 so out A out is not safe so much on that spot...c-bet n see waht happens

We are now at turn and our opponent called in position twice, so we have no precise idea to narrow his range. He could either trap with 2 pairs or a set, or he could just call with a middle pair, or top pair or second pair. Analyzing the board we spot a "banana" straight draw (OESD) but we have lost the backdoor nuts flush draw. We have for sure 8 outs, and eventually 11, if we consider that our Ace has a good enough kicker. We have around 30% of equity at showdown at this moment and we are somewhat commited with a SPR of around 1,5. This SPR combined with the passive line of Vilain pleads for a shove allin again. If we check or bet a partial size of the pot we will have to react to a reraise or to a difficult decision at river. 

In this situation we have 47% chance to win and our opponenet has 48%. Not the best situation. I don't wannna give him a free card so I bet with 12,800.

The turn is an advantage, the 10 is in the range of the player with hands like JT, or even KT a opposing hand really hoped if the K arrives at the river. KT would explain the passivity of villain.
Having raise UTG, we always treading a strong hand, such as AK.
Bet half of the pot on the turn is seen as a "value".

Maybe bet 12.5K, more thant a quarter of pot. It's hard to float with Jack without information on us. We can have AK in this spot, he would be scared but can call again. I think he can't call if we make allin river. Any river was allin for me

I make continuation bet less than a quarter of the pot

all in

@Alessio Bianchi how much do you bet?
Everyone, what do you put our opponent on, and what does he think we have when we bet?

i bet 11,500  , i think he have K10 spades and blinkin cos royal straight flush draw and straight draw too...he have many outs and us only K or 8 but we Ace so in case not close nothing to no one we win A high... bet 11,500 and prepared to call his re-raise ...in, case it's right and we found a K he can bet strong on top pair , maybe he put us on top pair with AQ , there is opportunity he is flatting a pocket pair maybe set and his trapping us ...we really need a safe river, no spades no aces or 9 , also J10 can set straight with 9.

his flatting call can be all or nothing... i had moved allin on flop i remeber anyway...will see if he had card to call it or showdown save us from a disgraced move as raise A9 offsuited with an AVg stack... i give more reason to suited aces hands but only in order to play some speculative hands not forcing it too much aggressive..

Our opponent just called preflop. Probably some speculative hand, like suited connectors. I would put him on 9T/TJ/JQ/KQ. Most probably TJ from what the call on flop, but without spades (just a guess).

When we bet, we have represent AK a lot, maybe with spades. But I would be afraid it will be taken as bluff and called anyway if he has at least 2 pairs.

On the other hand, check might seem a bit as trap here and we might get free or cheap card. So I would check here and be ready to fold. Aggresive is nice, but loosing on first hand is maybe too much aggresive.

When we bet, our oppenent feel that our hand is the strongest : we have nuts with AK, or AKs may be ATs. Top pair, or TPTK are bad for him. We are better, it's sure! :) Seen our stack and the height of blinds, we want to have the most of profit. If he wants to pay with the hand as QT JT 9T Q9, he will have to pay the prize. If he has a served hand, he has to have the doubt.

We have 16 outs with four K, four 8 and eight peaks, even 19 with 3 aces. (9 don't improve our hand). We are 24 % or 30 % of improvement.

The opponent with QT JT 9T Q9 have 9 % of chance to have a Full house or a Three of a kind, and 17 % for a straight to River. If he have 9Ts in peak, he hopes to avoid peaks in case we have AKs in peak, decision would be difficult for him.

Bet 12800

check /call

opponent is on a set a bigger ace maybe even takes the call line with a weak jack obvs a flush draw maybe a small to medium pair like 88 or 99 or even 89 spades i would check here on turn an see what he does as i thinkhe calls a bet so lets see what he wantsto do bet or checkback to see river i check call him if he bets 

Bet out in case drifting to the flush also get him lay a mid pin pair down 

I lost this hand