#HandMalta #BOMflop

Ok I still do not know the average stack size and how many players exactly to the bubble but since I decide to raise pre-flop this aggressive player I assuming that my stack is close to average stack and that there are not enough very short stacks to get me ITM safely. Also since I am told that the pot in now 28800 therefore I all so know that the table was not 10 handed but 9 handed.

So now its heads-up and I have position but villain instead of checking on the flop for me to make a continuation bets instead 12k out of position after first flat calling my 3bet pre-flop. This behaviour is very suspicious because he does not know if I flopped the nuts flush unless he has the Ace of spades and maybe another spade too plus his bet is less than half the pot a sort of invitation to call . True I have top set and position but villian can easily have a flush already so I could still be the underdog and have just about 33% to win the hand!

I am only ahead if he does not have a spades flush already or if for example he just has the Ace of spades or had pocket Queens or pocket sevens preflop. I do not see him calling me preflop with pocket queens either because being aggressive he would have probably 4-bet me preflop so I also exclude he has pocket aces for the same reason. He cannot have pocket King because there is a K on the flop too and so I would exclude all the other pockets because of his bet after the flop except for just pocket sevens in which case I am ahead and do not have to worry. The hands I am really worried about are if for example he had AsJs, AsTs or JsTs and As rag possibly even AsKc but I think he would have 4bet preflop too. In conclusion, or I am ahead and he has about 30% to win the hand or he is ahead and I have about 33% to win the hand.

In the situation I feel its best to just call because if I raise and he shoves I would have to risk my tournament life. If after I call another spade comes on the turn or river and he keeps betting I might have to fold unless the board pairs. So for now its safer to call and control the pot size.