#UnibetBubble #Decision5

The blinds are still 500/1000.

 In UTG+1, a player who likes to see a lot of flops opens with 2.2BB. He has 30,000 chips in his stack.

UTG+2, with a 90BB stack, calls.

You have now 34BB. In the BB position, you call with J♦8♦.

FLOP:

10♠3♦Q♦

You check.

Villain UTG+1 bets 5,000 chips.

UTG+2 folds.

You call.

TURN:

6♥

You both check.

RIVER:

9♣

You are first to speak.

We're now in a bit of a shitty position that could easily have been avoided by folding pre.

IF we shove , we fold out most hands that we beat - flush draws,top pair , weak two pair may all two pairs. if he had a set,top pair or two pair he's likely to have bet the turn again to protect his hand against flush and straight draws. We may get a call from 99 that hit his set on the river thinking we are trying to steal the pot  but with straight  draws completing thats hopefull at best and limits him to 6 combos of 99. we could also get a call from 78s but  7d8d is the only combo that makes sense with his line.if he calls with half of his 99 combos and 7d8d we get called by 4combos that we beat and snap called by 12 combos of KJ that have us crushed. losing 3 times more often than we win when our shove gets called seems like a bad idea.

if we check , we've shown weakness all through the hand , he may bet again expecting us to fold. a smallish bet would accomplish this if we have nothing , but he may just shove and give us a horrible decision to make. shoving with the nuts would be pretty bad as we are unlikely to call but he could do it just because its a bad idea.

If we bet it may look like we are trying to steal the pot and get called by 99 , 78 pairs and two pair hands so that we get value from hands that we beat. The only hand likely to raise is KJ , so i think the preferred option is to bet and fold to a shove. since we are intending to fold to a shove we need to make a decent bet to get value from the hands we beat , but limit  our losses if he shoves and we have to fold. 6 bb is ~1/3 pot and would leave us with 20bb if we have to fold to a raise which would still be workable and should see us through the button into the cash at least.

Bet 6000