EN
FR
Keith
Share this page
Keith’s posts
Blog Post

#UnibetBubble #Decision4

The blinds are still 500/1000.

 In UTG+1, a player who likes to see a lot of flops opens with 2.2BB. He has 30,000 chips in his stack.

UTG+2, with a 90BB stack, calls.

You have now 34BB. In the BB position, you call with J♦8♦.

FLOP:

10♠3♦Q♦

You check.

Villain UTG+1 bets 5,000 chips.

UTG+2 folds.

What do you do?

I'm still staring at the waitress who bumped into me when i was reaching for some chips to rifle and knocked my stack of chips over  and one of my 1k chips rolled into the centre of the table, 

dealer deemd this to be a call (WTF)  so had to ship in another 200 chips.J8s suited in this position is going to play pretty poorly , At best we will be flopping poor pairs, poor straight draws or poor flushs or drawers  against an early position raiser  and a big stack who can call  us or shove over any bets we make and put us in an awkward spot. It screams Reverse implied odds and this close to the bubble should have been an  easy opportunity to protect our stack and fold to the raise pre. 

 We therefore get the flop and have to consider his range. We know he likes to see a flop so i'll put him on any pair, Any Ace and most broadways and some suited connectors 67s+ or ~29% of hands.I'm kicking myself now for knowing thta he likes to see flops preflop but not having a clue what he does postflop  and make a mental note to start paying attention to how the other guys are playing their hands .

   We have 9 flush outs however if hes drawing to a flush as well that reduces that to 7 flush outs and with Adand Kd hitting the Ax and broadway parts of his range and position hard  we should really discount that and say on average 3 flush outs. 

  We have 4 straight outs to a gutshot (9's) and some backdoor draw to nut straight.  however 9d is a dirty out and should be discounted as it could give villain a better flushand even if we hit a 9, KJ has us beaten  so we should probably discount that out down to 2 outs with the gutshot meaning we could safely assume 6 outs giving us about 24% equity.If we miss on the turn our equity dives to around 10%  and could help villains broadway range to improve. We should probably further discount our flush outs as we are unlikely to get paid off if another flush card comes on the turn or river , so we are paying to draw to a hand that we are unaware if we will be ahead when we hit  and unlikely to get paid if we hit and villain misses.

   The pot after villain bets if 12.1 and if we call will be 17bb with 23bb effective behind. This hand is then rapidly approaching the point where we could be pot committed with worst hand if we hit, or pay to  hit and dont get paid when we do hit , or have to pay and fold when we miss.

    I am check folding this at this stage of the tournament, if the bubble had burst , i would consider check shoving if i knew that i had fold equity and hat i rad seen fold to reraises before. since i don't know that , i'm playing for safety at the moment out of position and wait until i have position in order to exploit his looseness.