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Mathias Petit
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#UnibetBubble 

#Decision6 

6th decision:

This is a new hand.

You are on the bubble now. Just one short of the money!

As usual at this time, most of the players will fold anything, the short stacks try to hold on as long as possible… and it lasts for ages…

Until this one hand where the player on the Button limps in on your big blind. He has 25BB in his stack.

As far as you know, he has qualified via a satellite tournament, and he is a very tight player who hasn’t played a hand for 2 hours.

The woman in the Small Blind folds.

So you are in the Big Blind. You hold 5♣Q♦ and your stack is 25BB. The exact same amount as the villain.

A bit tired, you casually tap the table and dully say, “Check”.


FLOP:

5♠5♥K♥

This is the kind of board that wakes you up immediatly!

His eyes hidden behind his sun glasses, villain pushes all his chips in the middle and says “All In”.

 

because we know the range of this person is soooo small i would put hem on a hand like ak aq etc. because of hes limp preflop but it could also be a trap limp with kk or aa so at this board when we do are hand combinations when we think he has ak,kk only because he wouldnt shov with aq or aa if he is such a nit. :

ev calc and hand rang

1) AK: 4aces left *3 kings left= 12 combinations (87% fav)
87%*50bb(totalpot) - 24bb(our call)= +19.5bb

2) KK: 3cominations    = 3cmbinations (95% lose)
5%*50bb(totalpot) -24bb(our call) = -21.5 bb

(4/5*[19.50])+(1/5*[-21.5])/2
15.6bb-4.3bb=+11.3bb

 

so with the math we would make 11.3bb profit to do a call here (for example in a cash game) on the long term BUT because its the bubble time i would still fold this hand even we are going to win 80% against hes hand range that we puted hem on.

 

Thank you Jonny for the help :)