#HandMalta #BOMriver

 Now here is where the great predicament arrives. A massive percentage of what we do at the poker tables is governed by our assumptions,
if our assumptions are wrong preflop about the image of our opponent, then every line we have taken was a mistake.
If the assumptions we made of the table dynamics are skewed in any way then we can easily misconstrue the current "tournament situation" we are in.
For example; do we know enough about this Swedish Pro to assume his starting range has now narrowed enough for us to nail down a few specific combinations of hands, especially considering
his turn "check" and how aggressive he has been?
Can i factor in the hand he played before this, where he spewed 20% of his stack and is now more than likely just making a play to re-coup some of the loss.
I myself do this often, straight after i lose a significant pot i am in the action very next hand trying build a pot with either an old fashioned "Stop-N-Go"
or perhaps the newly revised "Go-N-Go" or sometimes depending on number of opponents etc a variation of some other "play"...
As i have previously mentioned, i have indeed made this range quite narrow(but laggy) on the scale of things, ie; he could def be opening wider due to some of our "assumptions"
but i have indeed punched the numbers and when i put in a few more combos of Kx, Qx, Jx, all the suited Aces, the percentage changes are barely noticeable <>0.01 and 3.5%. (ish)
In fact maybe i should actually post one or two examples just to show you...

Heres what i've trimmed his range to.

and here's his range with a few more obvious cards thrown in.

You can see all other Ax combos added; suited(28) and unsuited(84), plus a further 60 more combos of Kx,Qx and Jx thrown in,
even on the turn as i have this set right now, the villain only has the Nut Flush 13.6% of the time and a Weak Flush 9.34% of the time
He shows up with Trips 2.71% of the time.

IE; The assumptions i made seem to bequite close and i'm happy to play on...

The all-in was inevitable, as from my earlier street planning, he certainly had enough rope to hang himself with and he has done a great job thus far.
If he indeed has a spade then GG, oh well, the dream is over, i'm going to go and cry into my dinner now...

For now i need to see how every possible spade would have affected the river and the percentage time he would of hit this as this was my worst case scenario
And as the river card is a inconsequential "brick" the 2♥ i can rule out anything worse happening to me based on the assumptions i made earlier and the assumptions i'll make if the spade had in fact dropped on the river....

Before the river came there was 9 possible cards,A♠, J♠, 10♠, 9♠, 8♠, 6♠, 5♠, 4♠, and the 2♠ that could have completed the flush, he was a 4-1 dog,

The pot 84,800 (42.4bbs) i have 90,500 stack (45.25bbs), theres is just a pot sized left for me, my SPR has landed crucially exact and correct. (1.6) to be precise...

So if the following cards came (in spades) this is how his chances of hitting the board would have changed;

Ace A♠=  He has No Made Hand about 75% of the time and the Nut Flush about 6.58% of the time and about the same for a Weak Flush.

Jack J♠ = He has No Made Hand about 71.7% of the time and the Nut Flush about 10.7% of the time. 6.29% he has a Weak Flush

Ten 10♠= He has No Made Hand about 70.4% of the time and the Nut Flush 10.5% of the time, Weak Flush 6.17%

Nine 9♠= He now has No Made Hand 70.4%, the Nut Flush 11.1% (highest so far) and the Weak Flush 6.17%

By the way it would have been a "Chop" 68.263% of the time, so thats wouldnt have been bad news either...

I don't think i need to continue with the other cards as they would hit his range even less than the cards i just went through.
All other cards are pretty meaningless too if i'm honest.

When the deuce hits the river, our guy here now has Middle Pair 12.5% of the time, a Weak Pair 16.1% of the time, Ace High about 16% also,
a Set about 6%, Top Pair 4% and and OverPair or Two Pair about 2% of the time

The equity share of the pot hasn't really changed much either, as per my rhyme, we're still sitting pretty at 65% to 35%

So it's a green light from me to get all the chippies in the middle....

I am about 0.5-1 favourite right now (64.88%) and the pot is offering near enough evens, so the maths still says the same thing (in a vacuum).
I am definately not in a vacuum right now and ICM should of played a huge part in my continuing, but i am almost certain i can put myself in a great chip lead if i take this pot down right now.
If i don't then... 

So to conclude my thorough investigation into this fantastic situation i find myself in, i am hypothetically fistpumping as he rams all his chips into the middle of the table. I snap call
Yes i could very well bust out here or perhaps wait another 221 hands to pick up another monster...
But....
i have a sign stuck down to my desk...it says "GO WITH YOUR GUT".And when you do these calculations all day, this stuff is what your gut is made of...

So i'm going with it...i might need a tissue ; )  It could go two ways right now.....this.......

or maybe just this....

or perhaps just this....

 GG NH WP SIR

So Long and Thanks for all "The Fish"

: D

 #HandMalta  #BOMturn  

Now with every street, it gets deeper than deep.

But i'm still the fave, so lets not sleep.

His 35 to my 65(%)

 equity's there, so now let's survive

or take the ride, without concern

Eleven percent that he hits the turn,

But 58% of the time, no flush or draw in my logical mind

5% he's got three of a kind

and barely 2%, that his two pair's fine...

I don't believe my luck, i hope it's not a chop

If a next spade hits, i think my jaw will drop

If i "check" back here will he ship the lot?

or is he slowing down, to a gallop or trot?

So now "pot control" is deep inside my soul,

as i rap the felt, let my emotions hold

I can't lose control, i'm here losing weight

as i meditate, do i hallucinate?

Should i accelerate or simply demonstrate?

that i got this locked, walk with my winning "gait"

Or will he bluff the last card?, i do hope so

an bust rivers an shivers back to his Swedish home...

Now if the river's a spade, he still could have a weak flush

about ten percent i think the the board runs "lush"

So has he got the "fear", or does he set his trap?

To see just where i'm at, he pulls down on his hat

he's never folding worse or spewing off his stack

if he is well ahead, by now we'd all know that

well that's enough mad chat, i have to feed the cat

so glad i checked back, now this is where i'm at...

Cheerfully awaiting devine rivers to bring, and the players to sing

i hope the river's a King...

 #HandMalta  #BOMflop 

HOW MY KK WENT ALL KRAY KRAY...

The dealer reveals Q♠K♠7♠.

Villain bets 12,000.

The action is back on you. You now have a 118,500 stack.
Time to get a little serious... as things start to get heavy, i see the monotone flop drop...KQ7sss

Arrghhhhh not what i was looking for but still.....lets do this....

The guy flatted my 3bet pre and now donks into me for 12K,my instant reaction to the size of this almost pot sized bet is....

no no no no no......wtf.......didnt see that coming....

The EV of my perceived 3betting range here is massive, he must know this...right?

Compared to the amount of negative EV hands that are costing him a lot in the long run (hands in red are -EV), on average he loses 34,000 chips every time he donks out in this spot....

Thank you kind sir , the Ambasador is indeed spoiling us...

My initial plan to set up an SPR of about 5 is going smooth as butter...

ive landed an SPR of 4.6, by rights i can pretty much stick my chips in now against his range and i'm good 83.19% of the time.

Even though this guy is aggressive, he's not an idiot, he's going to open a laggy but solid range from middle position approx;

22+,A9s+,KJs+,QTs+,JTs,T9s,98s,87s,76s,65s,A9o+,KJo+,QJo
About 17%,

he could even open up all his Ax suited on top of this and the percentages still dont really change much.
If he's holding the Ace of spades particularly, he only ever hits this flop about 9.2% of the time and im still a huge favourite.
His donk bet absolutely stinks of AJ,AQ,AT,A9 with the ace of spades(perhaps), but i'll even allow him to have a set here some of the time. 
i dont see this line being taken with middle pair or top two on any day of the week, this may be the bubble but i'm not about to waste a decent opportunity here...he asks me if i have a spade in my hand....only one answer....
     If the guy has no spade in his hand and the turn shows a spade,  He still shows up with no flush and no draw between 53% and 60% of the time depending on what card peels. In fact he would show up with no draw and no made hand more than half the time here...

He has a weak pair in his hand about 35% of the time and will probably show up with Ace High about 25% of the time, 20% of the time he'll have a gutshot,

so from his betting

he looks like he's got one of these a majority of the time and he's about to commit anyway, so it's either a raise or a jam from me. 

Villains Stack-To-Pot ratio is now about 3.7, so he may well be setting himself up to get stacks in as i had plannned to anyway. Yay : )

I'm leaning more towards a raise about a third of the size of his stack, so it looks like i can still fold if he decides to come over the top, 2.7x the size of his bet seems nice here, not too much to
scare him off but just enough to allow him to hang himself if he wants to go broke with Top Pair/Two Pair or a Set.

I think 32,000 is a decent raise size here, he may even put me on the Ace of spades himself and conclude that i am the one holding a nutted draw...

either way...

he takes off his sunglasses...

looks at me and all he can see is....

And i smell his fear...

 #HandMalta  #BOMpreflop 

So, here we are at the "Pokerlistings Battle of Malta 2015", been sipping on Prosecco wine, balling at the Hilton Hotel all week leading up to this one defining moment on the final table...

Half a million in the prizepool, on the bubble, ICM considerations running through the players minds.

Blinds are at 1K/2K (200)

An aggressive Swedish pro, who has been balling even harder at the local strip clubs this week is sat a couple of seats to my right... 

Am sat pretty deep with 65bbs and other guy has about 68bbs. He's been betting, raising and 3betting a fair bit and enjoying his moment as "Table Captain"...

His "Throne" is there for the taking...i'm gonna eat him up like a pound of bacon...

So the villain opens up to 5K another 1.5bbs added to the pot making it 7800 (3.9bbs) which makes me look at him like....

Cos i've got a monster......let's goooooooooooooooo

I'm looking down at my pocket Kings, thinking lots of things.....

First i'm thinking if i raise small and the flop comes down Axx, it'll be imposible to distinguish between an opponent with Top pair or one with a set and an aggressive opponent will probably not fold top pair here if the SPR is just right....

As my opponent here is acting pretty strong and aggressive, it can be possible to play a premium hand with a more subtle raise and then find the information i need with some clever postflop play.

I want to avoid any dilemma by attempting to put about 10% of my stack in the middle preflop.

As long as i can get 10% of my stack in i can produce a Stack-To-Pot ratio of less than 5 and i can then commit the rest of my chips postflop almost always. : )

so 10% of my stack is 13,050 chips, the pot is already 7800 so after a quick go on the old calculator, i have to put in a further 5250 to get to this magic number...

My goal here is to reach an SPR of less than  5 most times so i can commit to my hand on most flops and get my stack in...

This is my pre-emptive thought process anyway....

So a little raise by 5250 can maybe just get this aggressive opponent to either 4bet/jam or play a weaker range out of position or even just take the pot down now, all the results seem to be pretty +EV....so i'm going with this.....and hopefully ending with this......

Going Back to Basics...

For Blogs sake...

As we are now fast approaching The Unibet Open Glasgow which i was fortunate enough to win a seat into (thanks to RankingHero), i feel i have to change my normal study/play routine slightly...
As mainly an online player, i can quite easily "auto-bot" a lot of my decisions and plays partially because i have nice colour-coded stats and badges that can help sway decisions and partially
because it's what i've grown used to as my daily grind.

I am indeed a bit of a live "donk", i've played in a few leagues, pub games, local casinos and some underground dives
and it always takes me a little re-adjusting time to get used to live play. Once i'm settled everything is usually fine, i start to get very comfortable making live reads and throwing out a few reverse tells
for the benefit of the good players with fine observational skills.But initially i am that one fumbling idiot, knocking over his chips, putting the wrong chips in the pot, folding out of turn etc etc...

The one thing i always have to prepare for...is the increase or decrease of the skill deficit between live and online games(depending on the buy-in obviously)
.and the difference between sitting there in your underwear at home or having to control your excitement at a table full of actual people
So i always try and train myself to focus on specific moves, lines or plays that i need to mentally re-enforce before i get to said game.

I have a been a poker nerd for a few years now and as such have managed to collect almost every poker book or piece of poker related software that is currently on the market.
I spend a LOT of time studying the game, watching training videos, re-reading one of the 200 poker books i own or simply doing calculations, wether it's Expected Value or Showdown Theory
i can sometimes get bogged down by the masses of information that envelopes the whole poker universe and my tiny little brain.

Sometimes(usually when i'm running bad) i find myself having to take a step back and return to the fundamentals, just to gain a bit of clarity over the sometimes ridiculous mistakes
i see myself making when i watch back footage of some of my games.
I do find this to be my most useful tool in improving my game...seeing my own mistakes and trying to reduce them drastically can have a great effect on my overall performance..

Without drifting too far from the subject, i've returned to some basic refreshing of my tournament game, i picked up a book from the Author Ben Hayles,
the book is called "PostFlop" and although doesnt have tons of new information in it, it does have "compartmentalization" (if thats even a word).

Many of you will or will not know about "The Adult Learning Model" from "The Mental Game of Poker" by Jared Tendler/Barry Carter or perhaps another source
where you may have been trying to "learn" something and make it stick. Well, i was quite impressed to see the Ben Hayles book mention it at the very beginning of his new book.

The way we "learn" as humans is generally across four stages, we do it every single day of our lives without even knowing it sometimes....our brains really are amazing.

We start at;

Stage 1: Unconscious Incompetence (we don't even know that we don't know how to do something)

Stage 2: Conscious Incompetence (we now know that we dont know how to do something and it bothers us)

Stage 3: Conscious Competence (we now know that we know how to do something and it takes effort)

Stage 4: Unconscious Competence (we now know how to do something and it is second nature; we now absolutely rock at it)

These are the basic stages of learning and if you're even reading this then you're already at least at stage 2, we are NEVER completely competent so have to strike a fine balance
between the final two phases and continue learning (while others go on auto-pilot).

My initial point was that i often need to re-affirm that between stage 3 and 4 there is a ton of learning and re-learning to do...
I actually enjoy studying poker a lot more than i do playing it sometimes, it has served me well in terms of becoming "unconsciously competent" at many aspects of the game
When i find myself dragging my feet in a tournament, i try and return to the fundamentals to make sure i have indeed mastered these things
and if there are outstanding weakness's i do my best to climb on top of them and "compartmentalize" them in such a way that i can return to stage 4 comfortably.

To me it seems common knowledge that "repetition" is one of the greatest ways we can improve at anything we do. It's been mentioned in hundreds of books and seems quite logical
, the more we practice something deliberately, the better or more elite we can become...and thus becomes clearer my reason for writing this post
The more i repeat something, the more i can stamp it into my fragile little mind lol....and hopefully inspire some of you to keep studying while i'm here ; )

Ben Hayles is a poker coach/player who i've learnt alot from over the last few years, he's made a video series on HoldemManager and statistics for TournamentPokerEdge and GrinderSchool
and his way of thinking is very logical. He has boxed off many of the basic aspects of postflop play into neat little chunks we can easily digest to make these things easier to learn.

Like i have said, none of this is "new" information, but i am finding as i read and re-read it, it is being "myelinated"** (book reference; **The Talent Code- Daniel Coyle) into my brain
and i'm dying to share it with some people
who may appreciate it more than my facebook friends. Also, i'm wondering if this book is being over-looked by people as they aren't sure who he is...

We all have different learning styles and levels of concentration and need to remain active when we are learning, passive learning slows us down somewhat
and Ben Hayles has managed to make the fundamentals that much easier to digest and re-gurgitate.

The map and tools we have for playing poker have been neatly tidied up into little pigeonholes for us...
How we approach and arrive at our decisions is more crucial than the decisions themselves.
Lets make some smart choices and better equip ourselves for battle next time the fight is on....

Dan Harrington, in his book "Harrington on HoldEm"(part 1) breaks down "preflop" thinking into "elements" of a hand....
Now we have a comprehensive "postflop" element to think about, making it a hundred times more easier to keep in your head till it becomes
second nature(unconscious competence)....

THE 12 POSTFLOP DIMENSIONS (of decision making)

1) TOURNAMENT SITUATION

2) NUMBER OF OPPONENTS

3) RELATIVE POSITION

4) SPR (STACK TO POT RATIO)

5) OPPONENT INFORMATION

6) PREFLOP AND POSTFLOP BETTING

7) YOUR HAND STRENGTH

8) OPPONENTS RANGE AND LIKELY STRENGTH

9) TEXTURE OF FLOP

10) ODDS AND OUTS

11) IMPLIED ODDS

12) BETTING LINES

Yeah yeah, i know we've seen all this stuff before a zillion times, but seriously, how often do you neglect to think of at least a few of these things before you make a decision?
When i watch back recordings of my tournaments, it's glaringly obvious when i've not even considered my stack-to-pot ratio or when i've not noticed someone else in the hand
and therefore completely butchered my intended line for the hand...

Going over these 12 "dimensions" ( i might even stick them to my desk) is slowly helping me stay focussed on EVERY single hand being played(not just the hands i'm involved in)
If anyone out there is not familiar with any of the above concepts, get reading...these things are scattered across the entire book universe...

Looking at these things as "pieces of a jigsaw puzzle" is not a bad analogy, all credit to Ben Hayles for helping me think a little more logically...

This is the first chapter of his book in a nutshell... obv he goes through each topic in some detail, but this is the core of your thinking when at the table, if you're not
considering these then your fundamentals are not in place or perhaps just a little rusty.

In his second chapter, he goes a step further catagorizing all the postflop scenarios you can find yourself in. When i first started reading this, i was very unsure
of where he was going with it all and how it would benefit me, but after reading only half the book i had already gained a tiny bit more clarity...

Once these 6 categories are deep-printed in your hard-drive and commited to memory like the 12 dimensions above, you can then spend better quality time looking at the betting
lines used to exploit and demolish your opponents....
Further than that, once these betting lines and counter-strategies are then imprinted into your psyche you will have now compacted an entire map of the postflop game
into a beautiful little box wrapped in a bow that you open every time the flop hits the felt...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n73ajJOwsgQ

If you can't be arsed with the vid the 6 categories of postflop play are:

PostFlop Scenario 1: Preflop Aggressor In Position, Defender Checks...

PostFlop Scenario 2: Preflop Aggressor In Position, Facing Bet...

PostFlop Scenario 3: Preflop Aggressor, Out of Position...

PostFlop Scenario 4: Preflop Defender In Position, Facing Bet...

PostFlop Scenario 5: Preflop Defender In Position, Raiser Checks...

PostFlop Scenario 6: Preflop Defender OOP

Throughout the book, the author commands that the represenation of these scenarios is essential to grasp how he outlines the counter strategies and adjustments.
You only need to look at the flowchart underneath to see what options we have in each scenario and from there can devise an auto-response to each action
and will hopefully(in time) become more competent at recognizing situations where the correct counter-play is evident.

He does mention that sometimes a hand might not fit neatly into one one category as you could be multiway and be in and out of position simultaneously, in this case
he recomends considering yourself to be in two situations at the same time and should therefore perform a dual analysis.

I'm not going to go into detail on each dimension or scenario, there is just too much to cover and i'd end up typing out the entire book which wasnt really the point of this article/post.
But i would like to finish with a nice comprehensive list of Postflop questions we should all be asking ourselves so we think about the right things. If our mind ever wanders while we're playing
these questions should steer us back onto the correct path(hopefully).

POSTFLOP QUESTIONS:

~What is my tournament situation?
To what extent am i happy to gamble? Would i accept marginally positive EV?

~What is my opponent(s) situation?
To what extent is he happy to gamble? Would he accept marginally positive EV?

~How many opponents are active?
Do i need to isolate to one opponent?

~What is my relative position?

~Which of the Postflop Scenarios am i in?
What betting lines are appropriate?

~What is the effective stack size and what percentage of that is in the middle? (SPR)

~What information do i have on my opponent(s)?
HUD Stats- VPIP/PFR/CBET/Fold2Cbet/AGG Factor

~What information do i have from the preflop and postflop betting?
Who is the preflop aggressor?

~How strong is my hand now?

~Should i be trying to play a big pot or a small pot?

~How likely am i to be ahead?
How likely is my opponent(s) to have connected with this flop?
What information do i have about his hand?
What percentage of the time am i ahead now?

~How likely am i to be ahead at showdown?

~How committed to the hand am i? 100%?

~What is the texture of the board and does it suit me?

~How difficult is this going to be to play on the turn/river? Do i welcome another card?

~How many outs do i have against different hand categories?

~How many outs might my opponent have?

~What are my raw pot odds?

~What are my implied odds?
What is likely to happen if i hit or miss the next card(s)?

~How likely is my opponent to fold if i bet here?

~What bet size is appropriate? Bet more to protect or extract value, bet less to invite action.
How much do i need to bet to take the pot odds away from him calling on a draw?

~Am I aggressor/In Position/ahead/need to protect? Bet

~Am I aggressor/In Position/behind? What value do i have in continuing to bet?

~Am I defending /Out of Position/ahead? Lead, check-call, check-raise or check-fold?

~Am I defending/Out of Position/behind? Likely fold...

Many of these questions will already be a natural part of your natural thought process, and you are probably unconsciously competent at some of these if not all.

But if you're like me and still trying to do as much as possible to retain and recall some of this stuff (my memory is a little shady at the best of times)
then perhaps like me it's time to go back to the drawing board and look at your fundamentals and see where your leaks are coming from.
I know it's something i need to do again and again, i do feel like i have some of this down pat....but it certainly doesnt hurt to make sure : )

From here on in, i'm going to endeavor to write up my study/classrooom material for all to read(no matter how basic or advanced).
Poker is a lonely old game when you're not sitting at the felt, so it can be all to easy to forget about studying and become complacent, thinking
that your game is fine....YOUR GAME IS NEVER FINE......LOL.......KEEP WORKING(something else i should stick to my desk) hehe ; )

GL all, WP NH GG

#HeroScore #TopTen

Long awaited, anticipated "HeroScore" top ten,

done publishing and well wishing our list of famous friends.

From bottom up, right to the top, i'll name the ten that sums it up...

Most influential with credential, i wrote some words down with ma pencil...

At number ten, a slick cool "boss"

Is Jason Mercier, he's our dependable horse...

Then at number nine, for the UK repping

Chris Moorman the beast, is a weapon half-stepping...

I have to pause for a second to take on number eight,

 i think he needs his own page, like pokers "Bill Gates"

Italian fast cars and gold-plated guns

The baller, the caller with rivers of money that runs...

He now owns a GOAT and oils up his beard,

the Greatest Of All Time?, how we all love the wierd.

Bilzerian Dan, i'm sure you all know his name

his swag is so swag, even his toenails got game...

We have the "One Drop" king chilling at number seven,

so alias worthy when he's called "The Magician"

And Patrick Bruel perched at numero six,

Le classement Francais heros est toujours fait de son peu...

Texas Dolly so jolly, jamming at number five,

Were the cowboys still here? While this dudes been alive?

The original boss, from way back in the day

We should all tip our "hats" to this great master i say...

Another old legend, he's forever adored

Terminator Eric, Seidel the Cyborg...

At number four he sits so humble

barely hear the man speaking thru his robotic mumble.

While at number three, we have the one Helmuth "Bratt"

whose as loud as the Sun, but plays even hotter than that...

My all time fave bossing at number two

my main man ,Dan the man, Negreanu

has me dazzled and dazed with his demon soul reads

Eats 'em and beats 'em, spits 'em out like they weeds

He finds 'em an grinds 'em right down into mush

and with a smile on his face and chips you can't touch...

Now a drumroll please, you know he's got the goods

he's like the Tiger Woods, of all these neighbourhoods

Ace on the felt and inspiration to many,

yes he's the other "Phil" that you've seen on the telly

But mighty and pure, in his poker demure

Phil Ivey is King at number One to be sure......

#Unibet72                     HOW THE WORST BECAME FIRST...

As a "noob" to live games and remembering names

I called this guy "Bob", when his real name was "James".

At the Unibet open, from battles we'd chosen

We both meet heads-up, our chip stacks are frozen...

We take a short break, as my nerves start to shake.

Am i dwelling or telling on every single mistake?

Where there was banter and wit, now exceeded by it

Is atmosphere building like a bubbling pit

Of lava so hot, like a volcanic pot

i'm weighing my edge, "have i got one or not?"

I'm not willing to chop so i'm taking my shot,

An i'm fighting to get there so lets see a flop...

Stacks are both even, i start controlling my breathing,

the cards hit the felt, i can see the guy seething

from my last Royal Flush and my doubling up

the way that i'm running, he thinks i'll run out of luck...

On the Button, look down at the lonely old "hammer" 7♠2♣

"Easy min-raise", then i see his lip stammer,

But he tries to relax and show an attitude "slack"

like he's holding a monster an he's about to attack.

He beams out a smile, then "clicks" it right back,

"The old min 3bet, so you're gonna rep THAT?"

So i 4bet the pot, the guy stops on the spot...

"Is this dude gonna fold?, cos i'm in a rut"

My plan was to bail, so i deeply inhale,

"I gotta do this" I just cannot fail...

So i stop and i peep, his eyes they look weak,

I can see from the lines on his brow as i peek

He sits up then he sighs, and takes a small pause,

Jams in his chips to rapturous applause...

The crowd has gone wild, "He's 5bet all-in",

He pounced on that ounce of that doubt deep within.

My hearts exploding, like a supernova

Now i'm really gambling, i snake 'em like a cobra

I hear his words echo deep, but i feel like a soldier

"I strangle 'em in pairs, i ain't bluffing i just told ya"

I'd drive to Texas and "hold'em" just for this to be over...

No expectation or calculation prepares you for this rush

With Seven-Deuce i'm cutting loose

Not looking for no flush

To take a stand with a marginal hand, i'm gambling of course...

I'm telling him that my balls are big... "like a dinosaurs"

So with no delay, i Snap call and i say

"Got you crushed my old friend"

Shut my eyes and i pray

We both flip 'em over, i shrug on my shoulder

like a malevolent president, my reign is now over...

Not feeling intelligent, i'm making a wish

Here in my element, frying like fish

heart like a cyclone, i "tweet" from my iphone

That "this could be it" for Marcus or Tyrone?

Or was his name "Bob"right now i forget...

Then he shows his Six-deuce 6♣2♦ and breaks into sweat.

Sixty-six to Thirty-three percent this is our equity,

"you know this is like sex to me"

"i'm here in total ecstasy"...

So the door card's a deuce2♥ then a Four4♥ then a Nine9♠

We hit bottom pair and my kicker is fine...

Then with tender farts, the Ten of Hearts10♥ drops down on the felt.

Three-flush on the board, no piece in our hand

My eyes begin to melt.

"Just fade a Six" under baited breath,

I say to myself as i wipe off the sweat...

The dealer looks up and raps the table

Then off rolls a Three3♠, there's a cheer from my stable,

of players and friends who roar with delight

At my seven high win...what a beautiful sight...

#UnibetRoyalFlush

So, on the bubble, blinds at 4000/8000/1000

Hero (BTN): 25bbs i'm holding K♥Q♥

Villain(SB): 20bbs

With a starting pot of of 21,000,  i open about half my normal opening range here about 22%, i bet 20,000 giving the dude 2-1, the pot offers him roughly 2.5-1 so he makes a fairly easy call...  

The flop comes A♥J♥10♥

Then i  "do a little dance, share a little love...get down tonight"

Before i run around the casino naked with my tongue hanging out slapping the massage girls with it as i fly past...i stop to have a little think......hmmmmmmm

First i gotta think about this dudes cold calling range from the SB;

Assuming villain is going to 3bet me a lot of the time with his value hands, i can remove most of these from his range and put him on a de-polarised(condensed) range of about 6.11%

For simplicitys sake i've given him 66-99, T9s-QJs, QTs, KTs, K9s, A8s, A9s.  about 92 combinations. (there are def a few hands either side of this that could be shoo-ed in but i've stuck with these few hands just for this question).

From villains perspective, my perceived range is roughly 22% including 22+,A4s+,K9s+,Q9s+,J9s+,T9s,98s,A9o+,KTo+,QTo+,JTo  thats 294 combos. Yay me.... : )

Most of this villains range consists of weak pairs and gutshots and some weak flushdraws...

His weak pairs hit this flop about 68.2% of the time- KTs,QTs, T9s, KTo, QTo, 66-99. (45 combos)

His middle pairs hit about 13.6% of the time, QJs, QJo. (9 combos).

His top pair hands hit 9.09% of the time A9s, A8s,(6 combos)

His two pair hands like JTs hit the flop 4.55% (3 combos)

Villains Gutshots hit the flop about 45.5% of the time, KTs,K9s,QJs,QTs,KTo,QJo,QTo (30 combos)

He has weak FD's 13.6% of the time with his 66-88 (9 combos)

he also has 3rd nut flushdraw with his 99 (3 combos)

and 4.5% of the time he has no made hand with his K9s (3 combos)

I'm looking at the hand totally from a "Range vs Range" aspect and not " hand vs range" angle, this will help me see the game from villains perspective a lot more imho...

If you cant see the figures, it's 60% vs 40% in favour of my range on this flop...

Now considering how little villain hits this flop his equity is pretty good, his gutshots and pair hands have given him a fighting chance versus my range NOT my hand....

here's a little equity distribution heat map : )

Now looking at my next action, if i bet the size of the pot, villain has to be ahead about 33% of the time for his call to breakeven.

Now in my own tiny mind, in this spot, i dont want him to be breaking even....i want the guy to be winning and making a plus EV call vs my range. I need him to make a mistake (in the here and now vs my actual cards) ; )

His check on the flop was already -EV, if i check back my EV will be 0....if i check again on the turn my EV will again be 0.

If i bet half pot (as a bluff) my bet only needs to work a third of the time for it to be breakeven.

If i instead look at my bet from villains point of view, villain only needs to be ahead 17% of the time if the hero bets about 1/4 pot here...

17%= 4.8-1   therefore 4.8 times villain loses a total of 68,000 in chips 

but the one time he wins he scoops a pot of 114,000

114,000- 68,000=46,000= 5.7bbs(chipEV)

Now i may be a bit of a Maths donk, but i'm thinking if this guy can make a profitable call against me on the flop i could be onto a winner if i make the right choice....

for the villain a few turn cards could theoretically help him out....any Ace, King, Queen, Jack, Ten, 9, 8,7 or 6.......

And as he is a thinking player, if i check back this flop he may assume i am out of line by not cbetting and that i maybe already have him crushed.

If i bet too much i negate a lot of his equity in the pot, so i am thinking after my little exploration that a nice bet of 14,250 could quite easily be called here, as he could view my bet as an attempt to take the pot down relatively cheaply.

Also villain should be expecting a cbet a majority of the time on most A or K high boards...the monotone flop as scarey as it is

only really hits my range a tiny percentage more...

Weak Pairs 33.3%

Gutshots 38.7%

Top Pair 22.7%

Two Pair 12%

Set 4%

Straights 6.67%

Flush 0.89%

The fact is though, there are only a handful of hands that truly have any +EV to them if he calls 66-99, A8s and A9s.....

Soooooo, to cut my long arse story short lol......i'm gonna bet 25% of the pot 14,250 or thereabouts as a continuation bet simply to allow him to make a profitable call versus my range....

If he folds, he folds....whatever, it just means i was getting no more action anyway and i have still won the maximum from him possible, i know he made a mathematical error if he doesnt call....therefore a quarter of a pot bet just PWNED his backside on a monotone flop and i'm a happy bunny either way....

FWIW i dont care about showing off my RoyalFlush, i just muck my cards quietly and move on to the next hand 

But if the guy calls me down to the river......

Partytime

#FunSetup 

Choppertunity Knocks : )

I just gotta say...i been exploring the site since this morning, proper loving it btw....enjoying it so much i just missed my triple add-on in one of my tourneys