Ray made me into a fish :(

This is part2 of the oops365 competition :)

if you like reading can you click like to help me through to the next round, thanks!

Here is the hand:

You are at the Venetian, Macao.You’re surrounded by rich and rather unfunny Chinese businessmen. And honestly, it’s a bit scary.What a relief when you suddenly catch a glimpse of a familiar face across the room: your friend, Ray.You don’t pay attention to the dealer giving you the cards while you’re on the Button. You don’t even follow the action when a ninja in early position opens 3 BB. A samurai in middle position calls.You just shout “Hey Ray!” to your friend.“Raise, how much Sir?” says the dealer with a strong Chinese accent.You try to explain that no, you didn’t raise. You were just calling a friend… but you realize that the ninja and the samuraï are staring at you, with a sardonic smile. The dealer looks at them, then at you: “You said you raise. Too late Sir” he says, looking sorry for you.

You look at your cards and see 7♥5♥.

You try hard not to moan out loud… And your consternation becomes even deeper when you realize that the man you saw passing by… was not even Ray...

You have no choice. You must bet.You have 90 BB.

You raise 9 BB.

The ninja does a few chip tricks, and before you know it, he reraises to 18BB.

The samurai calls, and so do you.

The Flop

7♣A♠A♥

Both of your opponents check.

The pot is now 55BB. You have 78BB left.

What do you do now?

Wow this pot grew out of nowhere! Here I am one minute gazing around the casino floor looking for Ray who was meant to be here an hour ago, the next I'm in a 

2+1+3+3+9+

18+9+9 ... 54!! big blind point, with 7♥5♥. 

As with all decions that face us at the poker table let's look at what information we have at our disposal here: - 

Ninja and Samurai both know we didn't mean to raise pre-flop and then the Ninja made a raise.

1) The Ninja potted it giving us both 2:1 on the call preflop. He could be doing that because he thinks I'm weak and he wants some dead money. 

2) The Ninja did the most outrageous chip trick I've ever seen in my life, 

How he didn't kill the floor manager when he launched that thing halfway across the room only to boomerang straight back at him before he stopped it dead with the two poker chips he had in his mouth I'll never know. 

The chip trick could imply confidence... He sure as hell looked confident as it was flying around the room almost decapitating the floor maanger on it's way back to him. 

BUT! We are making sweeping assumptions here. We have no evidence to back up these assumptions. The chip trick could be a nervous twitch, while the EP raise could be a badly played premium looking to keep his 'fish' in the hand a little longer. 

So we can't really factor too much into these two observations, due to a lack of past evidence

Which leaves us with the hard facts of this hand: 

The EP raiser 4bet our 'oops raise', he should have a strong range here. Even if he's weakened it to punish our mistake he shouldn't have anything worse than 99-AA, AQ+ (and the range probability is weighted more heavily at the top end of that distribution, because often he might elect to flat hands like AQ and 99-JJ and possibally even QQ facing our 3bet).

The Middle position flatter wasn't facing a 'hey ray oh no damn i raised'

3bet... like the EP 4better was, instead he was facing a 4bet from the EP raiser this should tighten his range up considerably to hands like 77+ AK+ , if he's loose we could widen it a bit to include hands like Axs, and any pocket pair, maybe if he's super loose hands like lower suited broadways (but these are by far the exception i'd say).

So against the possible holdings we are up against we have a weak hand and the plan now is to get to a cheap showdown. One of these two could have an ace... due to card removal it's less likely but is still a possibility - and lets not forget the Ax suited connectors that love to see multiway pots that the MP Samurai has in his range, or the fact that our Ninja friend 4bet us from early position, skewing his range to the top end of his spectrum which could well include an ace. 

Given there are two aces already out there, it's less likely they are holding an ace but not impossible.

Even if they are not holding an ace for the very fact it's hard for them to have an ace, it's also that much harder for us to represent one. So we are just crushed with out actual range against ranges that include pocket pairs and Ax, and occasionally some Kx MAYBE, and our perceived range doesn't really come out any better. 

A big to medium pocket pair is unlikely to fold on this flop, and an ace certainly isn't folding, and these are the hands that form the greatest part of both their ranges. 

Also and less important than the ranges we've thought about but still worth considering is the check from the pre-flop agressor. What does that mean? Is he pot controlling? Or he is looking to induce a bet from behind? Whatever he's doing it looks a bit on the suspicious side.

I go with a check and try to put the reigns on this spiralling pot. 

How did I even get here with 75s anyway?! Oh yeah... Ray! 

Well done Ray you've made me into a fish. Ray + Fish = RayFish

So just call me RayFish

...RayFish? Really...

#OOPS365 and #part2.

Lots to do today! 

I wasn't going to play in the MTT league on Unibet this month which started on Monday but that's all changed with Malta, now I am going to be working on my MTT game just as much as I am my cash! Here is the low track for the MTT games which is what I'll be entering as much as possible every day for the rest of the month. 

So tonight I'll be playing the bottom 5. Every night I'm going to post my bust hands and any other info that I remember on Ranking Hero to get some feedback from you guys! 

If you want to join me in the league there's a few prizes up for grabs! (if you don't have an account you can open one on ranking hero and get £10 free). Let me know if you're playing the league too would be good to have a mini challenge with someone :)

Have a great Wednesday everyone! 

Waiting for a friend to arrive,  enjoying a victory drink 

Yes didn't take me long to get here 

Have a great week everyone

#HandMalta